Will Tesla follow
Apple ?
In a tweet , 2 days back , Elon Musk had
expressed reservations re setting up of a EV manufacturing plant in India
He had presumed that such a plant would
have to source , at least 30 % of the components locally – a condition , which
he felt , was difficult to comply with
Yesterday , DIPP has clarified ( of course , in a “ tweet “ for “
tweet “ fashion ! ) that , for setting up a local manufacturing plant , there
is no such condition
What that tweet did not say :
Tesla is welcome to import any and all the
components that it wants to – of course , after paying the applicable “ import duty “ – like all other foreign car manufacturers who have set up
manufacturing operations in India , over the last 15 years
Now , ordinary mortals like me felt that
this “ omission “ was due to the 140
characters limitations of a tweet !
But who could have suspected that
the REAL REASON for this
omission could have well been, today’s following announcement ?
“ GOVT READY TO OFFER APPLE , TAX
SOPS IF IT MAKES MORE IN INDIA “
Economic Times provides following highlights :
·
Government agrees with Apple that some of the components that go into
its products can’t be immediately manufactured in India
·
·
Govt has made a list of products that can be imported duty free till they are ready to be made locally
·
·
Govt has defined different components that will be ready to be made
locally over the next three, five or seven
years
·
Eco Times quotes , Aruna
Sundararajan , Sec , Ministry of Electronics & IT as follows :
“ Apple’s
road map is slightly different ( from ours ) and we are looking at harmonizing
it
If they agree, then they don’t need any
special concessions because then they will be falling in line with our
manufacturing plan “
Govt has proposed to Apple
, the following Phased Manufacturing Program
( PMP ) :
2017-18 :
Mechanics , Die-cast parts, Microphone
and Receiver , Key Pad and USB cable
2018-19 :
Populated Printed Circuit Boards, Camera
Modules, and Connectors
2019-20 :
Display Assembly, Touch Panels ,
Vibrator Motor and Ringer
Nothing revolutionary here to anyone who
applied for an Industrial Manufacturing License , around 1970 !
At that time , one was required to
submit a PMP , along with the IL Application
And , even provide the figures of
increasing “ local content ( by value )
“ in the selling price of the product proposed to be manufactured locally ( indigenization )
And even provide , figures of “ Anticipated Value “ of Import Licenses
required for each phase ! And provide figures for components imported and
products made / sold , each year !
One only hopes that what Govt proposes to Apple is made “ public
“ on DIPP web site so that there is ,
·
Total transparency
·
No ambiguity ( no scope for arbitrariness /
discretion )
·
Absolute clarity
And if an identical policy frame work is prepared – and made
public on DIPP web site – in respect of Electric Vehicles , there would be no need for
Elon Musk to tweet ( his apprehensions )
, nor any need for a tweeted response !
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear Elon :
For immediate approval ( in 24 hours ) , pl submit
your PMP as follows :
2017-18 :
Set up factory next to Mundra Port ( Gujarat ) to facilitate
world-wide exports
2018-19 :
Source locally , Tyres / Chasis / Body /
Electricals / Windows / Dashboards ..etc
2019-20 :
Manufacture in your own factory , Li-ion
Battery / Wall-mounted Powerpack Storages /
Solar Roof Tiles
2020-21 :
Manufacture RFID Sensors - Cameras – GPS locators
2021-22 :
Augmented Reality Devices
/ Autonomous Navigation Devices ( Radar – Lidar )
Now , it is very possible that neither Shri Gadkariji , nor Shri Goyalji , would be satisfied with such a slow PMP , spread
out over a period of 5 years
They may , well request Elon to
cut it down to 3 years
And , if they do, I get a feeling that
Elon would telescope the entire PMP , in 2
YEARS !
After all , Elon is the biggest proponent of :
24 May 2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs
Warm Regards,
Hemen Parekh
+91 98675 50808
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: 11 February 2017 12:45
To: 'NASales@tesla.com'
Subject: Welcome ! Elon Musk
Sent: 11 February 2017 12:45
To: 'NASales@tesla.com'
Subject: Welcome ! Elon Musk
Welcome ! Elon Musk
And just in time , too !
Business Standard ( 09 Feb 2017 ) carries a news report with headline :
“ Tesla plans to drive into India this
summer “
It reads :
“Hoping
for summer this year,” said Elon Musk, chief executive officer, Tesla, to a
query on Twitter about when the company planned to come to India.
Tesla began taking orders for its Model 3 sedan, priced at $35,000 ( about Rs 25 lakh ), from customers in the country in April last year.
Musk’s
tweet, however, didn’t provide any detail
During
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to
Silicon Valley in September 2015, he
took a tour of Tesla’s plant and met with Musk to discuss the use of renewable
energy in India’s hinterland.
The
cost of storing energy produced from sources such as solar and wind is still
far too expensive. Musk has been an advocate of lowering costs through mass
production.
Soon
after, in October that year, Musk hinted that India would be a great
manufacturing base for the lithium-ion batteries that power Tesla’s cars and
its Powerwall energy storage
units.
{
Last week, a 20 MW Powerwall Substation
got set up in California in just 98 days
, capable of supplying surplus stored GRID power to 1500 homes, round the
clock ! }
“Given
the high local demand, a Gigafactory ( extremely large lithium-ion cell
manufacturing unit ) in India would probably make sense in the long term,” Musk
had tweeted.
Even
at the Centre, subsidies for electric vehicles to boost sales across the
country have been rolled out under the National Electric Mobility Mission
Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHY IS
ELON MUSK INTERESTED IN INDIA ?
Because,
Globally
, India is the 2nd largest 2 wheeler manufacturer / 6th largest car manufacturer / 8th largest commercial vehicle manufacturer
India
produces 24 million vehicles / year and employs 29 million people
31% of the small cars sold globally are
made in India
Auto
Industry contributes 7.1 % of India’s
GDP
100 % FDI is permitted
through automatic route
Under
, Automobile Mission Plan ( 2016-26 ) , India plans to be among the TOP THREE in the World, with revenues rising to $ 300 billion ,
from current $ 72 billion
Current
vehicle population in India , is 200 million
( entirely Petrol or Diesel )
India
wants to replace ALL of these with Electric Vehicles by 2030, which works out to 14.3 million / year ,
even as 24 million petrol / diesel vehicles will continue to be manufactured
every year !
WHY SHOULD
INDIA BE INTERESTED IN TESLA ?
Tesla
is the world leader in Electric Car manufacture
It
has set up a GIGA-FACTORY to manufacture Li-on batteries
Li-on
batteries are also used for storing Solar Power
electricity
Tesla
has set up 795 Supercharging stations at malls and highways , all over the
World , and charges Tesla car-owners , mere $
120 for a travel of 3000 miles
from LA to New York !
In a
few months, Tesla starts mass production of Model
3 and plan to produce 500,000 cars in
2018
If
India cannot persuade Elon Musk to set up manufacturing in India , any number
of other countries are chasing him !
Tesla
is about to come out with an all-electric Semi-Truck
, which could be of great interest to India for replacing some 10 million , 15+ year old ( petrol / diesel ) trucks , under just approved Voluntary Vehicle
Retirement Policy
These vehicles consume 70 % of country’s diesel
Replacing these with electric vehicle ( rather than with another new
diesel vehicle ), could not only reduce pollution drastically but also save
crores of rupees !
WHAT ARE
THE ADVANTAGES OF ELECTRIC CARS ?
Electric
cars are non-polluting ( no harmful
emission gases ) and help reduce green-house effect
An
electric car is 5 TIMES more energy
efficient as compared to Petrol car ( energy conversion efficiency of up to
99.99 % )
An
electric car is 10 TIMES cheaper to
charge, with annual cost of $ 313 ( as compared to petrol cost of approx. $
3000 for 12000 miles – USA figures )
Since
it has only 20 moving parts as compared
to 2000 moving parts for a petrol car,
an electric vehicle is 10 TIMES cheaper
to maintain
It is
possible to charge an electric car Li-on battery wirelessly , using “ Induction Power Transfer (
IPT ) “ . In Italy , electric buses are already
being charged at BUS STOPS , while passengers get off and on !
Wireless
Charging essentially untethers an electric vehicle . Because they are
replenished many times a day ( at each Bus Stop ), they can use a smaller
battery
Li-on
batteries of electric cars can be used to store
electricity generated by Solar Power installations , and can contribute
to Grid Storage .
A
recent report by the California Public Utilities Commission concluded that EV
owners
could be paid up to $ 100 PER MONTH , for providing electricity to the
Grid
infrastructure
Essentially
, an electric car is a “ Computer on Wheels
“
It
is integrated with a huge number of sensors and
sensor-enabled devices
Not
only all electric cars are connected through
internet, with servers of the manufacturer but also with all the other
electric cars, manufactured by the same manufacturer
This “ connected-ness “ ( Internet of Things ) enables them
to compile , and relay ( or receive ) , in real time , data re :
#
GPS tracking
#
Speed Monitoring and Control
#
Fall Detection
#
Remote Battery Power Sensing
#
Tracking
#
Scheduling Maintenance
#
Road Infrastructure
#
Traffic Density / Pattern / Movement
#
Vehicle Behaviour / Speeding /
Accidents
#
Wear and Tear
All of this continuously streaming data becomes an
invaluable input for manual and automated decision-making by agencies such as :
#
Manufacturers / Maintenance Garages / Repair Shops
#
Car Rental Agencies / Share-a-car Taxi
services / Other cars on roads
#
Insurance Companies / Banks
#
Road Transport Authorities / Road Maintenance
Authorities
#
Traffic Police Departments
#
Pollution Control Authorities
#
Municipalities
Today , Mumbai Municipality announced the end of FREE parking on the roads
and
introduced hefty monthly fees payable by car owners
City of Mumbai has 30 lakh vehicles and
road-length of 2000 km ( 1500
Vehicles
/ km ) . These include 17 lakh 2 wheelers and 9
lakh cars
Imagine the nightmare of determining : “ Who
“ parks “ Where / When “ and
should pay “ What Amount “ and “ How “ !
If all these vehicles were electric, money would
pour into Municipal Bank
Account ( 24*7 ) , using Aadhar Enabled
Payment System , through pre-
paid RFID chips built into those
vehicles !
This will help us eliminate “ human intervention “ from “ Collection Process “
Electric
cars are “ future proof “ in the sense
that , they can be made autonomous or (
someday ) even “ flying “ !
If
energy conversion efficiency of Solar PV panels can be increased to 40 % as compared to current rate of 18 % , it is even possible that cars fitted
with such panels may not need any charging stations ! ( Remember , Tesla’s Solar
Roofing tiles to power homes ? )
Electric
cars make very little noise hence reduce noise pollution
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT ABOUT
DRIVING RANGE PER CHARGE OF ELECTRIC
CARS ?
A
range of 200 miles (
320 km ) per charge might be the minimum requirement of an electric car today
An
average American car runs only 58 miles ( 93 km ) per day
Nissan
Leaf has a range of 75
miles (
120 km ) per charge
Tesla
Model S has a range of 265 miles ( 426 km ) per charge with a 85 kwh
battery, which can be charged up to 80 %
( 250 miles ) in 15 minutes
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT ABOUT
THE COST OF THE Li-on BATTERY ?
In
2010 , EV quality Li-on battery cost about $
1,000 / kwh
Tesla
Roadster had a 53 kwh battery which cost $ 53,000 , about half the total cost
of the car
Battery
costs are dropping at about 12 % per year
Current
cost of Tesla’s battery is estimated at $ 100 /
kwh !
In
Tesla Model S (selling for $ 35,000 ),
battery is costing only $ 5,000 !
By 2025 , Tesla expects to bring down battery cost under $ 50 / kwh and
selling price of Tesla Model S ( equivalent model ) to $ 17,000 ( approx. Rs 12 lakhs )
!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILL FUTURE
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY OBSOLETE Li-on BATTERY ?
Have no doubt !
Venkataraman Thangadurai and colleagues
( University of Calgary / Canada )
have developed a rechargeable , button-sized
battery
Thangadurai
says :
“
The technology we have developed would enable absolutely stable, robust, safe,
high-powered, all solid state lithium batteries for future energy storage ,
which have many potential applications , including charging of electric vehicles “
And
then there is Israeli firm Stores-Dot , which claims to be developing a car battery
that can be charged in 5 minutes and give a range of 300 miles !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW WILL TESLA
ENTRY AFFECT INDIAN AUTO INDUSTRY ?
If
Tesla merely wants to sell their US – made cars to India , it won’t make much
of a difference to existing Indian Car Manufacturers
But,
if it sets up fully integrated manufacturing operations ( including sourcing of
components locally ) , then that could “ disrupt “ the Auto Industry !
From
there, it is one small step to “ disrupt “ the Indian
Bicycle Industry
Here
is how : “ A Radical Radial Revolution “
That
would dramatically speed up the change-over to electric car models by all the
existing manufacturers – which would be , an extremely desirable for the Indian
Economy as a whole
Welcome
! Elon Musk
11
Feb 2017
With Regards,
hemen
parekh
(
M ) +91 - 98,67,55,08,08
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