Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday 30 November 2015

RE: My Presentation Skills / L&T Story - 4


Dear Friends :



I , once again , urge you to send to me ( hcp@RecruitGuru.com ) , your own memories / instances of L&T , for uploading on www.hemenparekh.in

I am sure each one of you cherish some such incidences worth recording

Read together , these stories will tell the World ( at least , the Indian Business World ) , the Values , the Business Ethics , the Management Practices , that we all imbibed and nurtured

I have read many books about great companies like Google / Apple / Microsoft / IBM / General Motors etc., but I have not come across any which was a result of a collaborative effort of its past employees - themselves as " Characters " of the play !

Who will remember - and preserve L&T legacy - when we are all gone ?

We owe to the current and the next generation of engineers / managers , what went into making of this GREAT company - the pride of India

If you come forward to add your own contribution , L&T  STORY , can become a case study for the IIMs / MBA colleges around the country

One last thing :

You need not add your story as a " thread " to the email started by HRS ( - after a while , it may become ONE MILE long ! )

Just send it to me

I will inform everybody , after uploading

And like , true blue-blooded L&T-ites , set " Targets / Schedules " for your contributions  !

with regards,

hcp / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08

PS :

From my ADMIN page ( on Blogger ) , I found that , yesterday 45 of us visited / read , L&T Story - 3

There must be many other L&T-ites , who you know but are NOT covered by this mailing list

Pl do forward this invitation to them and encourage them to contribute

-----------------------------------------------



From: Haridas Shenoy [mailto:hrshenoy1941@gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, November 29, 2015 3:16 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; A R Rajurkar; AG Kale; AG Patkar; AK Ganguly; Amita Dixit; Anand Pasarkar; Anil Choudhari; Aravind V; Arun Khandekar; Arun Kumta; Arvind Rao; Asgar Saikh; Ashok Sanil; Atul Shah; AV Shenoy; AY Divekar; B Ramachandran; BB Singh; Bipin Shah; BJ Desai; BVRM Murty; CG Karamchandani; CR Mistry; Dinesh Shah; GR; Guha Thakurta; Gurudaat Kundapurkar; Hariharan S; HK Varma; HR Khona; HS Naik; HT Mehta; Jairam Menon; John Monteiro; K M Raja Sundaram; K Narsaiah; K Rajendran; KA Shaikh; KP Kotwal; KR Iyer; KR Patel; KS Ranganathan; Luis Vas; Madan Mandlekar; Mani Subramaniam; MB Meher; MD Palekar; MD Phatak; milind rajopadhye; MJ Paleja; MK Kaushik; MR Madnani; MVL Narasimhan; N Ramachandran; Natarajan Krishnan; NM Kudalkar; NV Srinivasan; PCS Ratnam; PD Joshi; PG Pande; PG Utagikar; PJ Pathak; PL Negandhi; Pradeep Talpade; Prakash Shrungarkar; PS Moharir; R Shivaji; R Sivaraman; RA Panchal; Raj Kumar Sheth; Rajat Desai; Ramesh Aggarwal; RD Kulkarni; RI Mehta; Rishikesh Joshi; Rita Rahimtoola; RM Yajurvedi; S Ravikumar; SA Bhoir; Sambhaji Shendkar; Sandeep Shenoy; Sanjay Galwankar; Sanjeev Gholap; SD Mande; Simple Agarwal; SK Shukla; SK Todkar; SM Warde; SS Ahluwalia; SS Manjeshwar; Suresh Gandhi; SW Patwardhan; Swapna Chaudary; TR Venkatraman; V B Ulman; Vasudev S; Venu Account; Venugopal Menon; VH Iyer; Vijay Lal; Vinod Sane; Viren Shah; Vivek Shiroor; VM Patel; VR Swamy; VS Iyer
Subject: My Presentation Skills

My Presentation Skills

Sometime in 1993, VH Iyer brought some Materials Management guys attending some training program to Powai and asked me to explain our systems to them.

I had full knowledge of the system but zero presentation skills.  I completed the presentation in one or two sentences and told them to ask questions.

I was so embarrassed by my inability that I vowed to myself to develop.

The opportunity came soon, courtesy Mr VS Shiroor to whom I was reporting to from 1.4.1981 till 29.4.2000 – in the department named Data Processing Section, later upgraded to Switchgear Information Systems.

In 90s, NITIE at Powai used to conduct Materials Management Training Program, duration being 5 days.  L&T PSW were allotted some 3 hour slot to explain our systems, by far the best in the industry as far as I am aware.  Mr Shiroor made one or two presentations.

When he had an opportunity to make the next one, I requested him to allow me to accompany him as an observer, to which he readily agreed.

The next time such the opportunity came I asked him “Can you allow me to take this session?”  Without hesitation, he did.  I did a wonderful job; I did not mess up like the first time.

I also told Mr Shiroor one more thing.  “I know they offer an honorarium (it was some Rs 300 for the 3 hour session).  Apart from the experience of developing presentation skills, I need that extra money too (all 3 children were studying engineering at various stages at that time)”.

For the next 5 years or so, I did those presentations and earned those few extra bucks.

An unforgettable generosity on the part of Mr Shiroor – one of the many!

HR Shenoy, 7666128505
Co-Founder, Tejora Technologies Limited, tejora.com

GST / GIVE AND TAKE


GST  /  GIVE   AND    TAKE

Dear Shri Modiji / Shrimati Soniaji :

It was statesperson like for you, to reach out to each other last evening , in order to arrive at an agreement on GST
All negotiations have two , initially opposing , parties
No agreement can be arrived at , on the " Terms " of only one of the parties
A customer sold against his will , ceases to be a customer  !
Agreements imposed through numerical strength of membership , are bound to get sabotaged
To arrive at a " Lasting Solution " , there must be give and take

Here is my suggestion :

NDA  GIVE  /  OPPOSITION  TAKE :

*    Accept a cap of 18 % for GST in the Constitutional Amendment Bill

OPPOSITION   GIVE /  NDA  TAKE :

*    A provision in Bill to enable the Government of the day , to raise the GST % in
     subsequent years , through an enabling provision
     
     This provision ( not mandatory ) , will allow the Government to raise the GST %
    through the Annual Central Budget each year
      ( anyway , Union Budget has to be passed in Lok Sabha , each year )

*   The amount by which GST " may " get raised , to be calculated as follows :

     #    Starting GST %   =    18 %
    #     Assume that , in 2016-17 , CPI rises by 10 %
    #     Take  5 %  of that 10 % rise in CPI .   That works out to 0.5 %
    #     So , in 2017-18 , GST may be raised by 0.5 % , to become 18.5 %
    #     This is the UPPER LIMIT . Government may choose to revise GST to any
           figure less than 18.5 %

This is a perfect  FACE SAVING  FORMULA / a WIN-WIN situation for both  !

This is not a matter of , " WHO is right ? "
This is a question of ,   " WHAT is right ? "

Carpe  Diem !  Cease this moment to strike a deal by today evening  !

Good Luck  !

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen  parekh
28  Nov  2015






Sunday 29 November 2015

RE: PRS Pillai


Dear Friends :


I have taken the liberty to upload this message from HRS , on my blogging site ( www.hemenparekh.in  >  Blogs ) , and titled it :


I invite you to visit the same and post your own comments underneath

Elsewhere , you will also find :

>      L&T  Story - 1

>      L&T  Story - 2

Of course , you are most welcome to comment on any other blog

And , if you have any suggestions on what I should write about , pl do write to me ( hcp@RecruitGuru.com )

Some of you might find your name mentioned at :


regards,

hcp

From: Haridas Shenoy [mailto:hrshenoy1941@gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2015 11:25 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; A R Rajurkar; AG Kale; AG Patkar; AK Ganguly; Amita Dixit; Anand Pasarkar; Anil Choudhari; Aravind V; Arun Khandekar; Arun Kumta; Arvind Rao; Asgar Saikh; Ashok Sanil; Atul Shah; AV Shenoy; AY Divekar; B Ramachandran; BB Singh; Bipin Shah; BJ Desai; BVRM Murty; CG Karamchandani; CR Mistry; Dinesh Shah; GR; Guha Thakurta; Gurudaat Kundapurkar; Hariharan S; HK Varma; HR Khona; HS Naik; HT Mehta; Jairam Menon; John Monteiro; K M Raja Sundaram; K Narsaiah; K Rajendran; KA Shaikh; KP Kotwal; KR Iyer; KR Patel; KS Ranganathan; Luis Vas; Madan Mandlekar; Mani Subramaniam; MB Meher; MD Palekar; MD Phatak; milind rajopadhye; MJ Paleja; MK Kaushik; MR Madnani; MVL Narasimhan; N Ramachandran; Natarajan Krishnan; NM Kudalkar; NV Srinivasan; PCS Ratnam; PD Joshi; PG Pande; PG Utagikar; PJ Pathak; PL Negandhi; Pradeep Talpade; Prakash Shrungarkar; PS Moharir; R Shivaji; R Sivaraman; RA Panchal; Raj Kumar Sheth; Rajat Desai; Ramesh Aggarwal; RD Kulkarni; RI Mehta; Rishikesh Joshi; Rita Rahimtoola; RM Yajurvedi; S Ravikumar; SA Bhoir; Sambhaji Shendkar; Sandeep Shenoy; Sanjay Galwankar; Sanjeev Gholap; SD Mande; Simple Agarwal; SK Shukla; SK Todkar; SM Warde; SS Ahluwalia; SS Manjeshwar; Suresh Gandhi; SW Patwardhan; Swapna Chaudary; TR Venkatraman; V B Ulman; Vasudev S; Venu Account; Venugopal Menon; VH Iyer; Vijay Lal; Vinod Sane; Viren Shah; Vivek Shiroor; VM Patel; VR Swamy; VS Iyer
Subject: PRS Pillai

PRSP was a colleague of ours in Production Planning in Powai in 60s and 70s and then moved to Madh Works.

He breathed hist last on 5th November 2015.  I got it confirmed from his daughter Parvathy who happens to be my DIL's classmate.

I had lost contact with him for the last decade and more.

I always remember him as a jovial, simple person, ready with a good laughter - not too loud.  I hardly remember anyone like him - may be EN Mendonca was close.

May his soul rest in peace.

I am not sure this is the ideal time to share a memorable experience I had with him.  But there will not be another opportunity.  If you feel offended, I seek your forgiveness.

In 60s and early 70s, ABC analysis of materials was nearly absent, despite what Mr HC Parekh may have wanted.  Later on when computerisation started, value category 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 came into existence, VC 5 representing items with no requirement (may be real, or may be BOM fault).

One day I was in HCP's cabin, taking dictation, and PRSP had been summoned.

PRSP came in.  HCP asked him "What happened to so and so item?  I am told it is out of stock and production has been held up."

"What, sir.  That is not true.  Only yesterday, I got two years' requirement and put in stock."

May be I am stretching it a bit too far when I say two years' requirement.

I called it Pillai's Planning System, which preceded any Production Planning System.

PRSP, you have always remained in my memory though we have not been in touch, and will continue to till my own last breath.

Again, RIP my dear PRSP


HR Shenoy, 7666128505
Co-Founder, Tejora Technologies Limited, tejora.com

Saturday 28 November 2015

GST SOLUTION


GIVE   AND    TAKE


Dear Shri Modiji :


It was statesman like for you to reach out to Congress leaders last evening , in order to reach an agreement on GST

All negotiations have two , initially opposing , parties

No agreement can be arrived at , on the " Terms " of only one of the parties

A customer sold against his will , ceases to be a customer  !

Agreements imposed through numerical strength of membership , are bound to get sabotaged

To arrive at a " Lasting Solution " , there must be give and take


Here is my suggestion :


NDA  GIVE  :

*    Accept a cap of 18 % for GST in the Constitutional Amendment Bill


NDA  TAKE :

*    A provision in Bill to enable the Government of the day , to raise the GST % in
     subsequent years , through an enabling provision

     
     This provision ( not mandatory ) , will allow the Government to raise the GST %
    through the Annual Central Budget each year

      ( anyway , Union Budget has to be passed in Lok Sabha , each year )


*   The amount by which GST " may " get raised , to be calculated as follows :

     #    Starting GST %   =    18 %

    #     Assume that , in 2016-17 , CPI rises by 10 %

    #     Take  5 %  of that 10 % rise in CPI .   That works out to 0.5 %

    #     So , in 2017-18 , GST may be raised by 0.5 % , to become 18.5 %

    #     This is the UPPER LIMIT . Government may choose to revise GST to any
           figure less than 18.5 %


This is a perfect  FACE SAVING  FORMULA


Carpe  Diem !  Cease this moment to strike a deal by today evening  !

Good Luck  !

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

28  Nov  2015

B2BmessageBlaster






SELF   CERTIFICATION  FOR  BUILDERS  ?

In Hindustan Times ( Oct 29 ) , Moushumi Das Gupta writes :

Govt to streamline rules for Construction Projects

Currently , a builder requires as many as 34 kinds of permits from two dozen Ministries, before starting construction

This process takes up to 3 years

Now, Central Govt has initiated a process to streamline the approvals required to ensure that builders get all the construction permits within 60 days

Eg:

*    Built up Area............. Environment Ministry

*    Height Restriction...... .Civil Aviation Ministry

Cabinet Secretary has directed all the Ministries to come out with notifications by end Dec 2015

The Centre has decided to empower Municipalities to grant all construction related approvals , based on these notifications

One would be able to get all approvals from under one roof , which in this case , would be the Municipal Corporation's office

Although a very laudable initiative , I believe there is tremendous scope to further streamline and digitize this approval process, in the nature of

E-Delivery of Services to Construction Industry

Here is how :

*  All builders / developers must register on Municipal Web sites and obtain
   unique BUILDER REGISTRATION NUMBER

*  Builders must fill in online, on web site of concerned Municipality, a form :
    BUILDING  PERMIT  APPLICATION

*  Building Permit Application Form will have a STANDARD FORMAT , into
    which applicant will need to submit exhaustive details re the project

    This will include detailed Floor Plans and Structural Drawings , along with
    names / contact details of Architects / Structural Engineers etc

    The FORM will require slab-casting dates for each slab and the final
    completion date when builder will apply for Occupation Certificate
   
*  The Form will have a section called

    SELF   CERTIFICATION   /  DECLARATION

    Builder would be required to tick YES / NO against each item as shown :
    Does your proposed Building / Structure / Project , satisfy the criteria /
    notifications / regulations , issued by the concerned Ministries in respect
    of :

    #   Built-up Area........... ( YES ) / ( NO )

    #   Height Restriction

    #   Fire Fighting

    #   Water Harvesting

    #   Roof-top Solar Power

    #   Effluent Treatment

    #   Garbage Disposal

    #   Earthquake Resistant Structural Design..............etc


Clicking on each item will reveal the relevant " Notification / Regulation " issued by the concerned Ministry

To make the process absolutely fool-proof , the form will insist on an " Electronic Signature " of the applicant


DECLARATION / UNDERTAKING :


" I declare that I have read each and every notification / regulation , listed   in respect of items mentioned above

I further declare that I explicitly agree to abide by these regulations

I am aware that Occupation Certificate will not be granted if my completed project is found to be in violation of any of these notifications / regulations

I will not allow any person / entity to occupy any part of this premises , until and unless , Municipality issues to me , the Occupation Certificate

If Municipality finds any violations , I agree to rectify the same before applying for a fresh Occupation Certificate

If Municipality is not in a position to issue Occupation Certificate due to any
violations which simply cannot be rectified , then I will demolish the said building / project / structure  on my own and before such demolition , refund with interest , payments collected from the buyers

The plot of land is free from any encumbrances / litigation

I am not in default of any loans taken from any bank / individuals

I will not accept any payment in cash , nor make cash payments

I absolve the Municipal Corporation of any liability arising out of non completion of my project
 
I agree that my Building Permit Application and my Registration Application details , be made accessible to public on your web site , along with full details of my past / current projects and full details of my balance sheet / bank borrowings  " 


GRANT OF APPROVALS BY MINISTRIES :


As soon as the builder submits the online BUILDING PERMIT APPLICATION , it automatically and instantly , appears on the web sites of ALL the concerned Ministries

The concerned officer of each Ministry , makes APPROVED / REJECTED entries in the application form , from the backend

If rejected , he will provide the reasons

Ministry officers are required to carry out this entry , within 24 hours

As soon as an officer of any Ministry makes entry and SUBMITS , the application forms on web sites of ALL Ministries and web site of the concerned Municipality , get updated simultaneously and instantly , making for MIRROR IMAGES at all times

As soon as any entry is made , a copy gets emailed to the applicant builder

Any " editing " of the application form by the builder , will start the entire process , all over

Applicant builder will be obliged to display the latest emailed form at the site

The database so created on web sites of ALL Ministries - and concerned Municipality - will be searchable State-wise / City-wise


CHANGES  IN  RELEVANT  LAWS :


To speed up any litigation between the parties concerned ( Builder / Buyers / Central & State Govts / Municipality / Bankers etc ) , existing laws may be changed


IMPORTANT :

Every application must be in the open domain and visible to anyone , online and transparently
There should be provision for any visitor of the web site to report any abuse / violation of regulations or any objection to the proposed construction


ADVANTAGES :

If such SELF CERTIFICATION process is implemented , it should be possible for India to beat Singapore , where getting 11 approval takes only 26 days !

It would be ZERO days in our case !

Now couple this with abolition of Corporate Income Tax for Construction Industry for the next 10 years and witness a MIRACLE

Then only it would become possible for achieving the following targets set by different States / Centre , under HOUSING  FOR  ALL:


*  Maharashtra...........  5 lakh      ( By 2020 )

*  Gujarat................... 50 lakh    ( 2013 - 2018 )

*  Centre.................... 220 lakh   ( by 2022 )


Also imagine :


*   Employment it would generate

*   FDI it would bring in

*   Our rank in EASE OF DOING BUSINESS


Need of the hour is :

*   Come out of " Analysis Paralysis "

*   Get rid of historical baggage

*   Break free from the legacy of the past

*   Think " Out of Box "

*   Take risk without worrying about possible failure

*   Make Course-Corrections , as you learn what mistakes got made

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

05  Nov  2015







NETWORK   OF   CURRENCY    NOTES ?

While inaugurating the International Conference on " Networking the Networks " on Nov 2 , our FM Shri Jaitleyji said :

" Tax evasion and money laundering will become extremely difficult in the next 1-2 years, with the global automatic exchange of information system coming into effect on a real time basis "

To speed up this process and make it truly automatic / real time , I suggest resorting to the following technologies :


#   Internet of Things ( IoT )


     As each currency note of Rs 500 / 1000 , is getting printed , embed it with microscopic
     RFID chips

     Besides communicating with each other , these chips will also transmit their existence
     location , through internet , to cloud-based servers of Income Tax Department

     This will form a " NETWORK  OF  CURRENCY  NOTES ( NoC ) "

     You may like to call this Internet of Currency ( IoC ) , a sub-set of IoT  !



#   Internet Protocol Address System ( IP V 6.0 )

     Each Rs 500 / 1000 currency note must be assigned ( at the time of printing ) , its own
     unique Internet Address , using IP V 6.0

     This IP address should be linked with the unique Serial Number printed on each note.

     Since IP V 6.0 , will be capable of assigning   " 2 * 10 to the power of 128 ", no of  IP
     addresses , there is no danger of running out of addresses , even if we decide to extend
     this idea to Rs 100 currency notes !

    
    
This reform will enable the Central Government / Income Tax Department , to :

*    Continuously trace the movement of each of these higher denomination currency notes

*    Instantly locate any place ( using Google Map based GPS ) , where there is an
     accumulation of more than Rs 1 Crore worth of currency notes

     Such accumulation will be made to appear as a TAG CLOUD on the web site of IT Dept,
     like thousands of balloons floating on a map of India , capable of being drilled down to
     within 1 Sq Meter  !

     On each balloon , will appear a number announcing , " Amount of Cash here - Rs " !

     This will vastly simplify the task of Anti Corruption Dept / Enforcement Dept etc


Of course , my suggestions may become outdated with the arrival of mobile wallets based CASHLESS SOCIETY , by 2030

In the meantime , experts may want to opine whether my suggestions make sense , theoretically and practically ( if so , by when ? ) to tackle the menace of black money generation

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

04  Nov  2015

    

    




DIGITAL   INDIA  ?

To take our GDP growth-rate above 10 % , it is absolutely necessary to empower each and every citizen digitally

This can only happen when all of them get internet-connected

To enable such connectivity , following conditions must be met :


SMART PHONES :

All citizens must have G4 / Wi-Fi capable / GPS - NFC enabled mobile phones
This is something competition among manufacturers will take care



BROAD-BAND  :

Entire country ( every nook and corner ) gets connected with , either land-based fiber optic broadband or wireless broadband , with minimum speed of 100 mbps ( as in S. Korea )

For this , the Central Govt must persuade Google ( Loons ) / Microsoft ( White space ) / Amazon ( low orbit satellites ) and other MSPs



E MAIL  ID :

Every citizen must be, allotted / assigned , a FREE Email Id , based on his / her Aadhar Number ( xyz@digitalindia.com ? )

This must be done by the Central Government



ONLINE  CITIZEN  DATABASE :

E-Mail Ids / Mobile Numbers / Postal Addresses of all the citizens should be easily accessible / searchable in an Online Citizen Database ( remember those printed Phone No Directories of MTNL / BSNL , of 30 years ago ? )

Any citizen can EDIT his own database by login from his Mobile phone only

And why not a similar ONLINE / freely SEARCHABLE database of :

#    3+ Lakh Companies in Organized Sector

#    30 + Million MSME Companies

And why not enable anyone to be able to send E Mail Messages to any of these Companies from the web site of Department of Company Affairs or of Registrar of Companies or of web site of Ministry of MSME ?

Just imagine the boost this small step will give to trade !




INTERNET  ADDRESS :

All electrically / electronically operated devices / gadgets / appliances etc , must be assigned IP V 6.0 address , before being sold

Beginning may be made with screens of all types ( Mobile / Tablets / PC / TV / Bank Locker Cover , etc )

And , above all , the UNIQUE SERIAL NUMBER on each currency note of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 , will also become it's IP V 6.0 address

Let IoT ( Internet of Things ) begin with these currency notes

Mr Vishal Sikka would be glad to help out !



TRACKING   MONEY   FLOW  :

All currency notes of Rs 500 / 1000 , to have built-in RFID chips

Accumulation of a large number of RFID chips in any single location ( including private safe deposit lockers / wall cavities etc ) , to show up as a TAG CLOUD , on web site of Income Tax Department / Google Maps etc

Implication of this " Reform " is enormous

Currently , some 97 % of payments in India are made in cash

This reform alone will ensure that , within one year , ALL payments are made through Cheques / official banking channels / mobile wallets !

Who wants a BIG tag-cloud on his bank locker ?


Now couple this with other following reforms :

*  Abolish Personal Income Tax (Revenue loss = Rs 2.45 lakh*crores )

*  Introduce Bank Transaction Tax - BTT ( Income = Rs 15 lakh*crore )

GST revenue due to those 97 % official payments  (Additional Rs 50 lakh*crore ? )

*  Other reforms suggested by at..www...hemenparekh...in>Blog such as

  #    Conducting ALL elections , using  : VotesApp : mobile app

  #    Delivery of Govt services , using : I SIN><U SIN : mobile app

  #    Eliminate Black Money ( Create Wealth to Create Jobs )

  #    Generate Clean Energy ( From Greed to Great ? )

  #    Health Care  ( 3D-Digital Delivery of Drugs )

  #    Paperless Society  ( Digital Locker )

  #    Govt Budgets ( Budgeting by Objectives  )

  #    Increase Domestic Saving-rate ( Jan Dhan Sarjan Yojana )


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh / 0 - 98,67,55,08,08

Mumbai


02  Nov  2015



From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 12:40 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: ALTERNATIVE TO EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS

A faster / cheaper / accurate ,  alternative to

ANNUAL   EMPLOYMENT   SURVEY  ?
---------------------------------------------------------------

 A Proposal submitted to

  *  Shri TCA Anant ,
      Chief Statistician ,
      Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,
      Government of India ,
     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Suggested By :

hemen  parekh
mumbai / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
27  Oct  2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I have a database of over 5 million job advts , downloaded over the past 6 / 7 years from various job portals of India

Each job advt database consists of :

Advt ID

Designation ( being advertised )

Company Name ( Advertiser )

Job Description

Desired Profile

Compensation Offered

Experience ( desired ) – Years

Industry Type

Education Quali ( Min )

Location ( Posting City )

Keywords

Advt Posting  Date

Expiry Date


Some years back , ( when our website , www.World-Wide-Jobs.com , was up and running ) , we had developed a feature to analyze this database and display the findings visually , in different ways

We were displaying PIE-CHARTS of :

Industry-wise Jobs

City-wise Jobs


You will observe that , with a much larger database available now , it is possible to analyze / display the “ No of Jobs “ , in many more ways

Not only that , it should be possible to analyze this huge database to predict the future expected PATTERN of the occurrence of jobs , in many different ways !


At any given time , the number of jobs getting advertised , is an important Economic Indicator

If economy is booming and company Order Books are getting fatter , then more jobs will get advertized – and vice-versa

Hence , a time-series analysis of the no of new jobs getting posted on job portals , has a  straight line relationship with the state of the economy ( a high co-efficient of correlation )

Apart from that , can a Data mining of 5 million jobs , answer ( even partially ) , the following questions ?

Who ( which Companies ) are advertizing and when ?

What jobs / vacancies / positions are being advertized ?

What is the frequency with which a particular job gets advertized ? By entire industry ? By a given Company ?

Which regions / cities have max / min no of new jobs ?

What are regional disparities due to ?

Which Industries are advertising most – creating most jobs ?

What Edu Qualifications are in max demand ?

What kind of jobs demand what kind of Edu Qualifications ?

What is the level of co-relation between , Position and the years of Experience demanded ?

For identical positions being advertized , how much do “ Job Descriptions / Desired Profiles “ differ, from company to company ?

Are there significant differences in the “ No of years of Experience “ being demanded , for identical positions ?

What is the probability of finding the “ Keywords “ in “ Job Description / Desired Profile “ ?

What is the extent of duplication ( redundancy ? ) between , “ Job Description “ and “ Desired Profile “ ?

What percentage of Advts fail to make any mention of , Compensation Offered ?

When a company posts an advt for same / identical position , at different points of time , are there any differences in values ( fields ) ?

From an analysis of all the advts posted by a given Company ( over past 7 years ) , can any conclusion be reached as to the changing nature of that company’s business (by co-relating the “ Skills related Keywords “)?

Can the algorithm predict what job a company will advertize next – and when ?

Is there any correlation between , “ Designation / Position “ and the “ Keywords “ ?

From analyzing this huge data , can software auto-generate , a complete / editable job advt , as soon as a Recruiter simply types the “ Designation / Position “ ?

I believe , so far , no one has undertaken such a Data mining project

If carried out diligently , I am sure , the outcome would be of immense benefit to :

HR Managers
      for Manpower Planning / Compensation Planning

Recruiting Managers
      for framing Man Specifications / Job Description Manuals

Educationists
      for deciding what Edu Quali are in demand and tailor the Courses

Students
      to figure out what “ Skills “ are in demand by Industry and prepare

Planning Commission ( NITI Aayog )
      for allocating Resources to States / Regions , based on imbalances

 HRD Ministry
       For long term Macro-Planning in respect of Education

National Skills Development Commission
      for chalking out Skills Development Programs in collaboration with Companies / Industries

If undertaken – and executed seriously – then this Data mining project has the potential to place

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,

 on the Centre-Stage of National Education Planning Scenario


What can / will such a project yield ?


Without exaggerating , it would be safe to assume that , this vast database of job advts would contain :

50 million phrases / sentences

500 million words

Obviously , each word / phrase / sentence , is nothing more than a

Database of Intentions “ of the Employer Companies

( to borrow from John Battelle’s well-researched book about Google )


Our goal shall be to make this ( Data mining Algorithm ) a dynamic / continuous “ Process “ , so that , we can measure the changing nature of these “ Intentions “ , over a long , long period


And we must enable a “ Researching Visitor ( of web site ) “, to benefit from these trends / patterns


Even though 5 million job advts may contain 500 million “ words “ , these are not Unique

 

Most of these are used again and again , hundreds or thousands of times

 

Thru data mining , it is not difficult to compute their “ Frequency of Usage “

 

And then , these frequencies can be graphically plotted against any particular time-period

 

Such Graphical Representations can be further broken up by ,

 

City Names

 

Company Names

 

Industry Names

 

Function Names

 

Designations ( Vacancy Names ).. etc

 

And such graphical analysis can be done , not only for “ Keywords “ but even for “ Key Phrases “ and “ Sentences “ !



Take a look at this project paper ( NOT ENCLOSED )


It is all about data mining of some 150 million records ( location points ) and about uncovering “ trends / patterns “ of physical movements of 300 human volunteers , over a “  period of time  “

I quote from article in Times of India ( 19 July 2013 ) :


“ ..the first system of its kind to predict long term human mobility in a unified way , parse the data. " Far Out " does not need to be told exactly what to look for  --- it automatically discovered regularities in the data “


“ Do you know precisely where you’ll be 285 days from now at 2 pm ?



Researchers have developed a new tracking software that can tell you exactly where you will be on a precise time and date , years into the future “



What we want to do with 5 million job advts database , is quite similar, viz ;

 predict ,

 WHO     ( which Company / Industry ) , will advertize

 WHAT   ( vacancies / positions / designations ),  and

 WHEN   ( time )



I am talking about developing an “ Expert System “ , thru discovery of specific “ Co-relations “ amongst various Data Fields of 5 million job advts

Eg :
Ø  What is the Co-relation between , any given

Ø  Designation / Vacancy-Name / Advertized Position ,

 and

Ø   Educational Qualifications  ?

Here are some examples :

Ø  Any designation  such as “ Production Manager “ would call for an “ Engineering Degree / Diploma “ ( but never a CS / CA )

Ø  Any designation in “ Finance Function “ will require,
B Com
M Com
CA    etc
       But never a BE(M ) / BE (Chem )

Ø  Any designation at Manager level will call for a minimum experience of 5 years ( but never a Fresh Graduate with NIL experience )

Ø  MBA / BBA / MMS etc are the most preferred Edu Qualifications for positions in Marketing


Ø  No vacancy in an Automobile Manufacturing Company , will call for a degree in Pharmaceutical

Ø  No Electrical Machinery Manufacturing company will ever demand a Medical Degree (MBBS )

To a human mind , these ( rules ) are so obvious !

But , no human mind can write-down ALL of such RULES , in 2 minutes ! – something that your Data mining Software can – and will – do in 5 seconds !

All that you need , after computing “ Frequencies of Occurrences “ , is to :
Ø  Plot the Co-efficients of Co-relations between various Fields ( of job advts )

Ø  Compute Probabilities for each and create hundreds of Probability Tables

And , since a thousand new job advts are getting added to our Job Advt Database , daily , the SAMPLE SIZE is perpetually increasing – thereby , increasing the Accuracies of your Predictions !

Having done this , imagine the following scenario :

Recruitment Officer of Wipro , comes to our “ Post Job “ page and , in the field for “ Designation “ simply types ,
“ Business Analyst “

And Presto !

The entire Job Advt Form gets auto-filled , with MOST PROBABLE values !

Would not that amaze her ?

All that our software has done is analyzed job advts of all “ Software Companies “ ( an Industry ),– and of WIPRO – for the position of Business Analyst and filled in the most probable values

This is no rocket science !

We had actually , partially attempted it – albeit in a crude way – in our earlier web site ,


What surprises me is , how come no one has attempted this so far !

Especially , Naukri / TimesJobs / MonsterIndia , who have accumulated millions of job advts !

Anyway , the fact that they have , so far , ignored this  Line of Examination , will work to the advantage of

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 – making YOU the very first person in the entire world to come up with a

>   PREDICTION MODEL in the area of JOBS
            

However , without applying some simple data mining tool , it would not be possible to answer the following questions :

Where is the greatest decline of jobs being advertized ?

How much is the percentage decline ?

In which Industry ?

In which Company ?

In which City ?

In which Region ?

In which Skills ?

For which Positions ?

For which Education Levels ? ………… etc

With a data mining tool , such individual graphs could emerge ( within fraction of a second ) at the click of a button !

One could even co-relate these graphs with other ,
 publicly available statistical data such as :

IIP   ( Index of Industrial Production )

Stock Market Index

Currency Exchange Rate ( eg; declining Rupee )

Decline in GDP / Increasing Fiscal Deficit

CAD ( Current Account Deficit )

Foreign Investments

Primary Bank Rates of RBI…………………………….etc


With proper co-relations , one could even predict how much the job market will further shrink , over the next 6 months ! or grow ?

Such” Predictive Model of Job Market “, would be of immense interest to , not only the economists but also to the
 HRD Ministry /
 Planning Commission /
 Educational Institutions and of course the
students themselves