Is Sun setting on Solar ?
------------------------------
Recent
news :
Giriraj Renewables,
part of Avaada Energy, emerged as the biggest winner getting 300 Mw at Rs 2.44
per unit.
====================
Wondering what is
going on ?
I will tell you .
It is a mess !
* Coal based
power projects of approx 40,000 MW are " stressed " with total NPA of
Rs
2
lakh*crores . Those which are struggling to survive , are likely to close down
soon .
They
are uneconomical since operating at PLF of under 50 %
* Those
which are efficient / profitable , are starved of coal
* Safeguard
Duty ( 25 % ) has made solar producers to keep away from recent tenders
Between march and July , some 3900 MW of solar capacity auctions got cancelled
– of
these 1,000 MW have been re-tendered
*
Safeguard Duty is unlikely to help the local ( domestic ) Solar Panel
Industry because
Chinese manufacturers ( exporters ) are expected to drop their prices by 30 %
by Dec
2018 , since their local ( Chinese ) demand has dropped dramatically and they
have
huge capacities which are idling ! They are desperate to sell to India
* On
top of this , Chinese manufacturers are making significant improvement in the
efficiencies of their Solar PV modules / Panels , so price per Kw is dropping
*
Recent Solar tenders stipulated " Max Price per Kw " - which is
keeping our solar
producers
away from quoting
* State
DISCOMS are backing out of already signed PPA with the Solar producers and
demanding re-negotiation of tariff !
* Many solar
projects are ready to deliver power but the Transmission Lines are just not
there
!
* In all of
this confusion , no banker wants to advance loans to projects which may turn
into
NPA even before going on stream !
* Even for
viable Solar projects , bankers are afraid to make commitment for fear of
being
hounded by CBI - RBI - SEBI – etc
As a result of all
of these , it seems highly unlikely that we would manage to meet our Solar
Power target of 100 GW by 2022 , with current installations of just 23 GW ( -
leaving a balance of 77 GW to be achieved in next 51 months ! Nearly 4.5 GW /
Qtr )
What is the way out ?
·
Shift
focus to Roof Top Solar ( of course , continue with Utility Scale )
·
Why
Roof Top ?
No Govt tendering
/ No transmission lines / No PPA with DISCOMs / No metering
/ No land cost /
Hundreds of small suppliers who will compete / quote / install /
commission /
maintain / service / 30 % Govt subsidy
·
What
is holding back the roof top ?
#
Local permissions / Subsidy procedures / Balance 70 % of Capital Cost to be
borrowed from banks @ 15 % interest ( tedious procedures / guarantees /
collaterals ) . Individuals stand no chance. Only Coop Hsg Societies benefit
# Bribing of electricity suppliers’ officers for “ reverse metering
“
# Non availability to store the power
for use at night ( lack of Storage Batteries )
·
What
is required to be done ?
# Amend Electricity Act (
Anyone can generate solar power , anywhere , any time
and sell to any
one at any price )
# Create SOLAR BANK ( SPV ) ,
where BLACK MONEY can be deposited ( Fixed
Deposits of 5
year maturity which cannot be terminated midway but can be gifted
to anyone )
# For depositing BLACK MONEY in
SOLAR BANK , no questions by Income Tax Dept
as to the source /
no tax / no penalty / no prosecution ( $ 400 Billion assured )
# FD will earn 1 % interest
# Solar Bank will finance Roof
Top projects at 2 % interest rate ( to replace 70 %
Bank funding of 15
% interest rate ) . This will accelerate installations to exceed
the targets .
Solar Bank to tie up with India Post Payment Bank to extend such
loans through its
network of 145,000 post offices
Solar Bank will extend such loans to EV
Battery Charging Stations which do not
draw power from the grid but generate their own solar power
# It should be made mandatory for all those 22 million Affordable
Houses ( also
targeted for 2022 ) to have pre-installed Roof Top Solar plants , before handing
over
to the occupants
References :
Roof
Top Solar : Better Alternative
Clean
Power ?
Solar
Roofs ? Why not ?
Solar
Power : Internal Rate of Return
Unsustainable
SRISTI ?
Sahaj
Bijli Har Ghar Yojana
Roof
Top Solar : Stuck at Plinth Level ?
Green
Buildings ? Put Greed to Work !
Solar
Power at Rs 1 per Kwh ?
I
urge Minister for New and Renewable Energy , Shri R K Sighji , to consider my
suggestions
20
Sept 2018
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
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