For
over 3 years now, Government Policy for Electric Vehicles have been plagued
with inconsistencies / contradictions / confusions / corrections / backtracking
!
There is an urgent need to take a long
term holistic view and develop / announce a clear ROAD MAP for the next 12
years ( till 2030 )
Let
us hope that the Policy Makers in charge , find an hour ( may be 3 hours ) to
read my following suggestions
FAME II >
FAME III > FAME IV
(
FAME = Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric
Vehicles )
National E Mobility Mission Plan [ NEMP – 2012 ]
7
million E Vehicles on the roads by 2020
---------------------------------------------
Enter FAME
2015
Target > By 2030, all vehicles on Indian roads should be
Electric ( - some 300 million ?
)
2016
Target > By 2030 , 25 % of the vehicles on Indian roads should be
electric ( - 75 million ?
)
-------------------------------------------
FAME II (
Ap 19 – Mar 22 ) - 3 Years
Highlights of FAME II :
#
Scheme starts on …………………………….. 01 April
2019
#
Total value of Subsidy Package …………. Rs 10,000 Crore
#
Charging Stations ( Rs 1,300 Cr )………….2,700
Current
Targets / Subsidy Amounts :
|
Type
of E Vehicle / Battery Capacity (KWh)
|
Target
Number ( 3 YR
)
|
Subsidy
Amount / Maximum Veh Price (Rs )
|
End
Use prescribed
|
|
Buses
|
7,090
|
35-60 lakh
/ 2 crore
|
Public Transport
|
|
Cars ( Hybrid ) / 15 - 25
|
20,000
|
5000-20,000 / 15 lakh
|
Taxi / Aggregator
|
|
Cars ( Electric ) / 15 - 25
|
35,000
|
1.5 - 2.5 lakh / 15 lakh
|
Taxi / Aggregator
|
|
3 Wheelers
/ 5 - 10
|
500,000
|
50,000-1 lakh / 5 lakh
|
Commercial
|
|
2 Wheeler
/ 2 – 4
|
1,000,000
|
20K-40K
/ 1.5 lakh
|
Private use
|
=======================================================================
Following figures speak
for themselves :
|
Type
of E - Vehicle
|
Target
for 3 years
|
Therefore
Per Year
|
Actual
EV sold in 17-18
|
|
Buses
|
7,090
|
Approx. 2,300
|
Less than 200
?
|
|
Cars ( Hybrid )
|
20,000
|
Approx. 7,000
|
NIL
|
|
Cars ( Electric )
|
35,000
|
20,000
|
1,200
|
|
3 Wheelers
|
500,000
|
175,000
|
132,000 (
low cap Ricks )
|
|
2 Wheelers
|
1,000,000
|
333,000
|
58,400
|
====================================================================
How much of above targets are
likely to be achieved ?
|
Type
of Veh
|
17-18(Actual)
|
18-19(Est)
|
19-20(Est)
|
20-21(Est)
|
3yr
total(E)
|
3yr
Target
|
%age
likely
|
|
Buses
|
200
|
500
|
750
|
1000
|
2,250
|
7090
|
32
|
|
Cars ( Hy )
|
Nil
|
500
|
1,000
|
2,000
|
3,500
|
20,000
|
17.5
|
|
Cars ( E )
|
1,200
|
3,000
|
5,000
|
7,000
|
15,000
|
35,000
|
43
|
|
3 Wheelers
( excluding E - Ricks with less than 5 KWh battery )
|
132,000
( all sold were under 5 kwh battery, which do not qualify for
subsidy )
|
10,000
( with battery bigger than 5 KWh )
|
15,000
|
25,000
|
50,000
|
500,000
|
10
|
|
2 Wheeler
|
58,400
|
75,000
|
100,000
|
125,000
|
300,000
|
1,000,000
|
30
|
=======================================================================
What is the reason for this
pessimism ?
#
Non-availability of “ Fast “ battery charging stations every few km, resulting
in “ range anxiety “ for EV buyers
#
Maintenance / Service / Repair garages for Electric vehicles, on each corner (
new technology poses problems )
#
Despite the subsidies, ex-factory prices will still remain much higher than for
equivalent Petrol / Diesel vehicles
#
Ramping up production is a very complex and time-consuming process. Not like
turning on a tap !
What , if any , is the
shortcoming of just announced FAME II ?
#
It focuses solely on “ Incentivizing the Buyers “
through subsidies
#
There are no “ Incentives “ for the vehicle manufacturers to ramp up production
or commercialize “ cost
reducing “ technologies, especially in the matter of Lithium-ion batteries
which constitute up to 40 % of EV ex-
factory price
#
There are no “ dis-incentives “ for manufacture / sale / purchase of Petrol –
Diesel vehicles
#
Linking the subsidy amounts with battery size is not the right method . In fact
a vehicle with a smaller size
battery , but giving same performance ( speed – range – charging time etc ) as
a vehicle with a bigger battery,
should be rewarded with higher subsidy !
Efficient
use of input resources must be encouraged
#
There is no directive with regard to scrapping of old ( more than 10 years )
petrol / diesel vehicles
-----------------------------------------------
What would you recommend next
?
FAME III ( Apr 22 - Mar 26
) – 4 years
[
A ]…..
MANUFACTURERS
(
A.1 ) Policy Instrument > Corporate Income Tax for Incentivizing the
manufacturers of Batteries
Total
exemption of Corporate Income Tax for companies exclusively engaged in the
manufacture of :
# Aluminium-Air
Batteries ( No need for any roadside battery charging
stations ! )
EV
juice from Alu-Air Battery ? [
16 Jan 2018
]
Ashok Leyland is not waiting ! [
17 Jan 2018
]
Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles [
17 Feb 2018 ]
# Sodium-ion
Batteries ( Reduce battery cost to 10 % of Lithium-ion
Battery cost ! )
Congratulations , Shri GopuKumarji [
30 Jan
2019 ]
# Fuel Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed by CECRI
( literally FREE electricity and zero pollution )
Ray , a drop of golden Sun [
18 Feb 2019
]
# Other developments in fast-charging batteries ( under 5 minutes
for 80 % charge )
A
New Battery Could Store Ten Times the Power as Lithium-Ion
Piëch's
electric coupe charges to 80 percent in five minutes
(
A.2 ) Abolish Corporate Income Tax ( for 10 years ) for the entire E Mobility Eco-System
From OLD to NEW ? No , go NEWER
!
[ 22
Sept 2016 ]
For EV , Andhra gets an
A
[
25 Dec 2017
]
NITI proposes : SIAM postpones
[ 20 Dec
2017 ]
India : Energy Storage Mission
[ 04 Dec
2017 ]
( A.3 ) Incentivizing
the E Vehicle manufacturers
# E
Cars having Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion Battery
Way
back in March 2017 , ISRO demonstrated a OMNI retro-fitted with a Solar Panel
roof-top ,
charging a high density Lithium-ion Battery – eliminating need for roadside
charging stations !
Most likely, such a car would cost under Rs 10 lakh
As against this , German company SONO
MOTORS
just released its own final design for a similar
car with solar
roof top and a 35 KWh battery , selling for Euro 25,500 ( Rs 20.5 Lakh )
Government must go all out to persuade
Indian Car Manufacturers to adopt ISRO technology
Not only, will we save lakhs of crore of Rupees
in Battery Charging Infrastructure but we would be
able to export
millions of such E Cars all over the world
#Solarcar #Electriccar
[ 07
Nov 2017 ]
Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles
[ 17 Feb
2018 ]
#ISRO #MSME #ElectricVehicle
[ 13 Nov
2017 ]
EESL
: Getting Away from Straitjacket
?
[ 26
Aug 2018 ]
Solar
Panels charging Li-ion Batteries of Electric Cars ? [ 04 May 2017
]
# Policy
Instrument > Carbon
Credits
Based on car specifications / assumed average monthly usage etc , figure
out and fix
* " Carbon Credits " for each model of electric car
manufactured
* Based on Carbon Credits earned , calculate Direct Transfer of
Benefit ( DTB ) to electric
car manufacturers based on monthly dispatches of each model
and then transfer these amounts from EVFF ( Electric Vehicle Finance Fund ) ,
as incentives to
manufacturers
PIYUSH PLAN ? [
27 Mar 2016
]
Gathering Speed at Snail’s Pace
?
[ 02 Oct
2018 ]
( A.4 ) Dis-incentivize
manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles
This could be
achieved by gradually raising the GST rate for such vehicles, starting from April 2022
and
simultaneously gradual reduction in the GST rate for Electric vehicles
( A.5 ) Incentivizing manufacturers to
get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “
By ordering to stop usage of old vehicles in Delhi, already a serious problem
has arisen in respect of
their storage and disposal . When applied on all-India basis, this could lead
to millions of old vehicles
getting “ abandoned “ and cluttering the city-scape
But
, this seeming nightmare could be turned into a profitable business opportunity
, by adoption of :
Car Grave-Yard of World ? [
14 Feb 2018
]
====================================================================
[ B ] BUYERS
( B.1 ) Incentivize
for purchase of E Vehicles – especially, leasing of buses
FAME II ( just announced )
#EV #ElectricVehicles #EESL #WetLease [ 13 May 2018
]
Provide depreciation to private individual buyers
SIAM seeks
SOPS
[
27 Dec
2017 ]
( B.2 ) Incentivize
Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel vehicles ( non-compliant with BS VI norms )
Give subsidies to “Current Owners of Old Vehicles “ at 150 % of subsidies
announced under FAME II
( source : Missing piece of Jigsaw Puzzle ? / 15 Nov 2018
)
( B.3 ) Incentivize
to switch-over to E Bikes
Most users of 2
Wheelers (costing Rs 1.5 lakh – 2 lakh ) run for less than 10 Km in a one way
trip
For
them , FAME II proposes a onetime subsidy of Rs 20,000 – Rs 40,000
A cheaper / faster alternative would be to retro-fit a standard / normal cycle
, costing Rs 15,000 , with a,
Geo-Orbital wheel (
costing approx. Rs 20,000 ) to run 30 Km at a speed of 30 kmph
What are the advantages ?
# India already produces 18 million cycles every year – largest in
the world
# All of these are capable of being retro-fitted by Geo-Orbital wheel ( takes
just ONE minute ! )
# Electric Motor of Geo-Orbital wheel is just
500 Watts !
# Even if battery gets discharged half way , manual pedaling will
work ! No range anxiety !
# Instead of giving a subsidy of Rs 40,000 for a factory-built
Electric 2 wheeler, a subsidy of Rs 10,000 for
retro-fitting of Geo Orbital wheel, will enable 4 times as many ( = 4 million )
users to commute faster !
# Wheel can be re-charged at home at night , in 3-4 hours
# Bicycle riding can be done by persons less than 16 years of age
and does not require a driving license !
A Radical Radial Revolution
! [ 18 Aug 2016 ]
How are other countries encouraging cycling for reducing fossil fuel pollution
?
Following countries are “ paying “ citizens to use cycle :
Per Km
run :
# The Netherlands …… $ 0.22 / km [ =
Rs 14 x 1000 km / month = Rs 168,000 / year ]
# UK …………………………. $ 0.16 / km [ = Rs
12 x 1000 km / month = Rs 144,000 / year ]
# Belgium ………………… $ 0.26 / km [ =
Rs 18 x 1000 km / month = Rs 216,000 / year ]
Fixed amount :
#
France ………………… $ 230 / year [ = Rs 16, 100 / year ]
# USA…………………….. $ 240 / year
[ = Rs
16,800 /
year ]
Fix Tax rebate to buy bicycle :
# Luxembourg…………. $ 340 [
= Rs
23,800 ]
Connecting the
News [
18 June 2018
]
( B.4 ) Policy
Instrument > Taxing
all Vehicles based on their “ Harm Quotient “ for environment
Dis-incentivize purchase of Petrol / Diesel vehicles
Instead of spending / wasting scarce government funds to “ Subsidize “ the buyers for purchase of E Vehicles,
( and that too, for 3 years ) , it would be far better to “ dis-incentivize / penalize “ them ( and
permanently ),
by introduction of Pigovian
TRANS-TAX on each and every vehicle , for its entire life ( no more “ Old
Vehicles “
only ), as conceptualized in detail , at :
================================================================
[ C ] GOVERNMENT
( C.1 ) P0licy
Instrument > Wet Leasing [ Thank You , Shri Jaitleyji / 25 Dec 2018
]
Today
, there is a total disconnect between E Vehicle manufacturers and Battery
Charging Stations
E Vehicle manufacturers have no incentive to set up charging stations , which,
to them are the responsibility
of
the Governments ( Central + States )
This attitude will
change overnight , if all government purchases of E Vehicles ( Central + State
+ Municipal )
are on a “ WET LEASE “ basis , where the lease
rent is fixed on a “ Per Km “ of actual usage (
instead of “ Per
day / month “ ) .
For
over a year , I have been urging EESL to
switch-over to this instead of outright purchase
To ensure that the E Cars supplied by them to the governments are never stopped
because of battery
discharge ( and waiting for its 5 hour wait / turn, to get charged at some
charging station 10 km away ), the
manufacturers will ensure putting in place, a vast network of Battery Charging
Stations , ON THEIR OWN !
[
D ] PASSENGERS OF PUBLIC
TRANSPORT (
Non-Vehicle Owners )
For taxis / rickshaws running on Hybrid fuel ( producing less Co2 ) or Electric
Vehicles ( zero emission ) ,
both , the driver and the passenger will get " Carbon
Credits " , which will also get displayed on
the DigiMet as also on
the FareCalc Mobile App on
the smart phone of the passenger ( @ 20 % of the fare
payable
? )
These amounts will get transferred to their respective Jan Dhan Bank Accounts
( thru DTB ) , every quarter
( source : Making Yourself Obsolete ? / 14 Feb 2016
)
[ E ] SOLAR POWER for ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Policy Instrument > Amendment to Electricity Act
Anyone can generate and SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and
at any price !
(
source : Not Good Enough !
/ 02
Dec 2017 )
=======================================================================
FAME IV [ April 2026 – March 2030
] - 4 YEARS
At
the end of FAME II / FAME III ( 3 + 4 = 7 years )
, government must focus its attention and efforts on finding and implementing,
long term solutions . Solutions which are aimed at “ Reducing Vehicles “ of all
kinds from roads, by “ Reducing Need to Travel “
Without
doubt , these will have following priorities :
#
Continuation of the policy of “ Encouraging Public Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies
– Metros etc )
#
Putting in place , a policy of “ Shared Transport “ ( of private cars
which are barely used for 8 % of the time )
Going
beyond these, “ Need to Travel “ ( in most cases ) , can be dramatically
reduced by ,
#
Encouraging “ Remote Working “
#
Facilitating Video Conferencing ( eg : Skype – FaceTime etc )
The
steps to achieve these twin objectives , are :
#
Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through 100 Mbps Optical Fibres )
#
All Mobile Services to be working on 5G
#
Internet through WIRELINE BROADBAND , coupled with LI-FI in all homes
References
:
"
BACK FACTORY " OF THE WORLD ?
[ 09 Sept 2015
]
How
About Virtual Call Centers ?
[ 04 Oct
2016 ]
Wormholes
Across the World ?
[ 03
March 2017 ]
Will
Holograms beat H1B Visa Ban
?
[ 31 Jan
2017 ]
Peter’s WEB
3.0
[ 09 Dec
2018 ]
#WiFi
#LiFi #Broadband
#Internet
[ 08
April 2018 ]
=======================================================================
06
March 2019
Rsvp
: hcp@RecruitGuru.com
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