Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday 6 March 2019

TAKING A LONGER LOOK


For over 3 years now, Government Policy for Electric Vehicles have been plagued with inconsistencies / contradictions / confusions / corrections / backtracking !


There is an urgent need to take a long term holistic view and develop / announce a clear ROAD MAP for the next 12 years ( till 2030 )


Let us hope that the Policy Makers in charge , find an hour ( may be 3 hours ) to read my following suggestions



FAME   II   >   FAME   III   >  FAME  IV



(  FAME  =  Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles  )


National E Mobility Mission Plan [ NEMP – 2012 ]

7 million E Vehicles on the roads by 2020

---------------------------------------------

Enter FAME


2015  Target   >   By 2030, all vehicles on Indian roads should be Electric  (  -  some 300 million ?  )

2016  Target   >   By 2030 , 25 % of the vehicles on Indian roads should be electric  ( -  75  million ?  )

-------------------------------------------

FAME II  ( Ap 19 – Mar 22 ) -  3  Years


Highlights of FAME II :

#    Scheme starts on  ……………………………..    01  April  2019
#    Total value of Subsidy Package  ………….  Rs 10,000 Crore
#   Charging Stations ( Rs 1,300 Cr )………….2,700
   

Current  Targets / Subsidy Amounts :

Type  of  E  Vehicle / Battery Capacity (KWh)
Target Number ( 3 YR  )
Subsidy Amount / Maximum Veh Price (Rs )
End Use prescribed
Buses
7,090
35-60 lakh        /   2  crore
Public Transport
Cars ( Hybrid )  /   15 - 25
20,000
5000-20,000    /  15  lakh
Taxi / Aggregator
Cars ( Electric )  /  15 - 25
35,000
1.5 - 2.5 lakh   /  15  lakh
Taxi / Aggregator
3 Wheelers        /   5 - 10
500,000
50,000-1 lakh  /    5  lakh
Commercial
2  Wheeler        /   2 – 4
1,000,000
20K-40K          /  1.5 lakh
Private use


=======================================================================



Following figures speak for themselves :

Type of E - Vehicle
Target for 3 years
Therefore Per Year
Actual EV sold in 17-18
Buses
7,090
Approx. 2,300
Less than 200  ?
Cars ( Hybrid )
20,000
Approx. 7,000
NIL
Cars ( Electric )
35,000
20,000
1,200
3  Wheelers
500,000
175,000
132,000 ( low cap Ricks )
2  Wheelers
1,000,000
333,000
58,400

====================================================================


How much of above targets are likely to be achieved ?

Type of Veh
17-18(Actual)
18-19(Est)
19-20(Est)
20-21(Est)
3yr total(E)
3yr Target
%age likely
Buses
200
500
750
1000
2,250
7090
32
Cars ( Hy )
Nil
500
1,000
2,000
3,500
20,000
17.5
Cars ( E )
1,200
3,000
5,000
7,000
15,000
35,000
43
3 Wheelers
( excluding E - Ricks with less than 5 KWh battery )
132,000
( all sold were under 5 kwh battery, which do not qualify for subsidy )
10,000
( with battery bigger than 5 KWh )
15,000
25,000
50,000
500,000
10
2 Wheeler
58,400
75,000
100,000
125,000
300,000
1,000,000
30

=======================================================================


What is the reason for this pessimism ?

#  Non-availability of “ Fast “ battery charging stations every few km, resulting in “ range anxiety “ for EV buyers

#  Maintenance / Service / Repair garages for Electric vehicles, on each corner ( new technology poses problems )

#  Despite the subsidies, ex-factory prices will still remain much higher than for equivalent Petrol / Diesel vehicles

#  Ramping up production is a very complex and time-consuming process. Not like turning on a tap !


 

What , if any , is the shortcoming of just announced FAME  II  ?

#     It focuses solely on “ Incentivizing the Buyers “ through subsidies

#    There are no “ Incentives “ for the vehicle manufacturers to ramp up production or commercialize “ cost
      reducing “ technologies, especially in the matter of Lithium-ion batteries which constitute up to 40 % of EV ex-
      factory price

#    There are no “ dis-incentives “ for manufacture / sale / purchase of Petrol – Diesel vehicles

#    Linking the subsidy amounts with battery size is not the right method . In fact a vehicle with a smaller size
      battery , but giving same performance ( speed – range – charging time etc ) as a vehicle with a bigger battery,
      should be rewarded with higher subsidy !

Efficient use of input resources must be encouraged


#    There is no directive with regard to scrapping of old ( more than 10 years ) petrol / diesel vehicles

-----------------------------------------------  


What would you recommend next ?

FAME  III  (  Apr  22  -  Mar 26  ) – 4 years



[ A ]….. MANUFACTURERS

           ( A.1 ) Policy Instrument >  Corporate Income Tax  for  Incentivizing the manufacturers of Batteries

               Total exemption of Corporate Income Tax for companies exclusively engaged in the manufacture of :

     #  Aluminium-Air Batteries  (  No need for any roadside battery charging stations  ! )

                EV juice from Alu-Air Battery ?                            [  16  Jan 2018  ]

                Ashok Leyland is not waiting !                             [  17  Jan 2018  ]

                Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles                             [  17 Feb 2018  ]

 

     #  Sodium-ion  Batteries   (  Reduce battery cost to 10 % of Lithium-ion Battery cost ! )

               Congratulations , Shri GopuKumarji                       [  30  Jan  2019  ]

 

          #   Fuel Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed by  CECRI  (  literally FREE electricity and zero pollution )

               Ray , a drop of golden Sun                                    [  18  Feb  2019  ]

 

          #   Other developments in fast-charging batteries ( under 5 minutes for 80 % charge )

 

               A New Battery Could Store Ten Times the Power as Lithium-Ion  

               Piëch's electric coupe charges to 80 percent in five minutes


 

 

         ( A.2 )  Abolish Corporate Income Tax ( for 10 years ) for the entire E Mobility Eco-System

 

                From OLD to NEW ? No , go NEWER !                     [  22  Sept  2016  ]

                For EV , Andhra gets an A                                      [ 25  Dec  2017  ]

                NITI proposes : SIAM postpones                            [  20  Dec  2017  ]

                India : Energy Storage Mission                               [  04  Dec  2017  ]

 

 

         ( A.3 )  Incentivizing the E Vehicle manufacturers

 

                #  E Cars having Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion Battery

 

                     Way back in March 2017 , ISRO demonstrated a OMNI retro-fitted with a Solar Panel roof-top ,

                     charging a high density Lithium-ion Battery – eliminating need for roadside charging stations !

                     Most likely, such a car would cost under Rs 10 lakh

 

 

                     As against this , German company SONO MOTORS just released its own final design for a similar

                     car with solar roof top and a 35 KWh battery , selling for Euro 25,500 ( Rs 20.5 Lakh )

 

 

                     Government must go all out to persuade Indian Car Manufacturers to adopt ISRO technology

 

 

                     Not only, will we save lakhs of crore of Rupees in Battery Charging Infrastructure but we would be

                     able to export millions of such E Cars all over the world

 

 

                     #Solarcar #Electriccar                                              [  07  Nov   2017   ]

 

                     Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles                                    [  17  Feb  2018  ]

 

                    #ISRO #MSME #ElectricVehicle                                   [  13  Nov  2017  ]

 

                     EESL : Getting Away from Straitjacket ?                      [  26   Aug   2018   ]

 

                     Solar Panels charging Li-ion Batteries of Electric Cars ?   [   04  May   2017  ]       

                     

                
#  Policy Instrument  >  Carbon Credits

               Based on car specifications / assumed average monthly usage  etc , figure out and fix

             *  " Carbon Credits " for each model of electric car manufactured


             *   Based on Carbon Credits earned , calculate Direct Transfer of Benefit ( DTB ) to electric

                  car manufacturers based on monthly dispatches of each model

                 and then transfer these amounts from EVFF ( Electric Vehicle Finance Fund ) , as incentives to
                 manufacturers 

         

                  PIYUSH PLAN ?                                               [  27  Mar  2016  ]

                 Gathering Speed at Snail’s Pace ?                     [  02  Oct  2018  ]

 

   

( A.4 )   Dis-incentivize manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles

 

            This could be achieved by gradually raising the GST rate for such vehicles, starting from April 2022

            and simultaneously gradual reduction in the GST rate for Electric vehicles

  

 

( A.5 )  Incentivizing manufacturers to get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “

 

           By ordering to stop usage of old vehicles in Delhi, already a serious problem has arisen in respect of

          their storage and disposal . When applied on all-India basis, this could lead to millions of old vehicles

          getting “ abandoned “ and cluttering the city-scape

 

          But , this seeming nightmare could be turned into a profitable business opportunity , by adoption of :

                Car Grave-Yard of World ?                           [  14  Feb  2018   ]

 

====================================================================

 

[  B  ]   BUYERS

 

        ( B.1 )  Incentivize for purchase of E Vehicles – especially, leasing of buses

                   FAME  II ( just announced )

                   #EV #ElectricVehicles #EESL #WetLease   [  13  May  2018  ]

                  Provide depreciation to private individual buyers

                  SIAM seeks SOPS                                      [  27  Dec   2017  ]

 

 

        ( B.2 )  Incentivize Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel vehicles ( non-compliant with BS VI norms )

 

                  Give subsidies to “Current Owners of Old Vehicles “ at 150 % of subsidies announced under FAME II

                 ( source :   Missing piece of Jigsaw Puzzle ?   /  15  Nov  2018  )

 

                 

        ( B.3 )  Incentivize to switch-over to E Bikes

         

           Most users of 2 Wheelers (costing Rs 1.5 lakh – 2 lakh ) run for less than 10 Km in a one way trip

          For them , FAME II proposes a onetime subsidy of Rs 20,000 – Rs 40,000

          A cheaper / faster alternative would be to retro-fit a standard / normal cycle , costing Rs 15,000 , with a,
          Geo-Orbital wheel ( costing approx. Rs 20,000 ) to run 30 Km at a speed of 30 kmph



          What are the advantages ?


       #   India already produces 18 million cycles every year – largest in the world

       #   All of these are capable of being retro-fitted  by Geo-Orbital wheel ( takes just ONE minute ! )

       #   Electric Motor of Geo-Orbital wheel is just 500  Watts !

       #   Even if battery gets discharged half way , manual pedaling will work ! No range anxiety !

       #   Instead of giving a subsidy of Rs 40,000 for a factory-built Electric 2 wheeler, a subsidy of Rs 10,000 for
            retro-fitting of Geo Orbital wheel, will enable 4 times as many ( = 4 million ) users to commute faster !

      #   Wheel can be re-charged at home at night , in 3-4 hours

      #   Bicycle riding can be done by persons less than 16 years of age and does not require a driving license !

              A Radical Radial Revolution !      [ 18  Aug  2016 ]

 

         How are other countries encouraging cycling for reducing fossil fuel pollution ?

 

         Following countries are “ paying “ citizens to use cycle :

 

 

         Per Km run :

        #    The Netherlands  …… $  0.22 / km [  = Rs   14  x 1000 km / month =  Rs  168,000 / year  ]

        #    UK …………………………. $  0.16 / km  [  = Rs  12   x  1000 km / month =  Rs  144,000 / year ]

        #    Belgium …………………  $  0.26 / km  [  = Rs  18   x  1000 km / month =  Rs  216,000 / year ]

 

 

        Fixed amount  :

        #    France  …………………  $  230 / year   [  =  Rs 16, 100  /  year  ]

        #    USA……………………..   $   240 / year  [  =  Rs  16,800  /  year  ]

 

 

        Fix Tax rebate to buy bicycle :

        #   Luxembourg………….  $  340    [  =  Rs  23,800  ]

 

       Connecting the News                 [   18  June  2018  ]

 

 


       ( B.4 )  Policy Instrument  >  Taxing all Vehicles based on their “ Harm Quotient “ for environment

 

                  Dis-incentivize purchase of Petrol / Diesel vehicles

 

       Instead of spending / wasting scarce government funds to “ Subsidize “ the buyers for purchase of E Vehicles,
       ( and that too, for 3 years ) , it would be far better to “ dis-incentivize / penalize “ them ( and permanently ),
       by introduction of Pigovian TRANS-TAX on each and every vehicle , for its entire life ( no more “ Old Vehicles “
       only ), as conceptualized in detail , at :



================================================================

 

[  C  ]   GOVERNMENT

 

       ( C.1 )  P0licy Instrument  >   Wet Leasing  [  Thank You , Shri Jaitleyji  / 25  Dec  2018  ]

 

        

         Today , there is a total disconnect between E Vehicle manufacturers and Battery Charging Stations

         E Vehicle manufacturers have no incentive to set up charging stations , which, to them are the responsibility
         of the Governments ( Central + States )


        This attitude will change overnight , if all government purchases of E Vehicles ( Central + State + Municipal )
        are on a “ WET LEASE “ basis , where the lease rent is fixed on a “ Per Km “ of actual usage ( instead of “ Per
        day / month “ ) .

For over a year , I have been urging EESL to switch-over to this instead of outright purchase


        To ensure that the E Cars supplied by them to the governments are never stopped because of battery
        discharge ( and waiting for its 5 hour wait / turn, to get charged at some charging station 10 km away ), the
        manufacturers will ensure putting in place, a vast network of Battery Charging Stations , ON THEIR OWN !




[   D  ]  PASSENGERS OF  PUBLIC  TRANSPORT ( Non-Vehicle Owners )
            For taxis / rickshaws running on Hybrid fuel ( producing less Co2 ) or Electric Vehicles ( zero emission ) ,
            both , the driver and the passenger will get " Carbon Credits " , which will also get displayed on
            the DigiMet as also on the FareCalc  Mobile App on the smart phone of the passenger ( @ 20 % of the fare
            payable ? )


           These amounts will get transferred to their respective Jan Dhan Bank Accounts ( thru DTB ) , every quarter

          ( source :   Making Yourself Obsolete ?   /   14  Feb  2016  )

 

 

 

[  E  ]   SOLAR  POWER  for  ELECTRIC  VEHICLES


          Policy  Instrument  >  Amendment to Electricity Act

          Anyone can generate and SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and at any price !
  

         ( source :  Not Good Enough !   /   02  Dec  2017  )

 

=======================================================================


FAME  IV  [  April  2026 – March 2030  ]  -  4  YEARS


At the end of FAME II /  FAME  III  ( 3 + 4 = 7  years  ) , government must focus its attention and efforts on finding and implementing, long term solutions . Solutions which are aimed at “ Reducing Vehicles “ of all kinds from roads, by “ Reducing Need to Travel “


Without doubt , these will have following priorities :

#    Continuation of the policy of “ Encouraging Public Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies – Metros etc )

#    Putting in place , a policy of  “ Shared Transport “ ( of private cars which are barely used for 8 % of the time )


Going beyond these, “ Need to Travel “ ( in most cases ) , can be dramatically reduced by ,

#   Encouraging “ Remote Working “

#   Facilitating Video Conferencing ( eg : Skype – FaceTime etc )



The steps to achieve these twin objectives , are :

#   Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through 100 Mbps Optical Fibres )

#   All Mobile Services to be working on 5G

#   Internet through WIRELINE  BROADBAND , coupled with LI-FI in all homes


References :

" BACK FACTORY " OF THE WORLD ?            [ 09  Sept  2015  ]

How About Virtual Call Centers ?                  [  04  Oct  2016  ]

Wormholes Across the World ?                     [  03  March  2017  ]

Will Holograms beat H1B Visa Ban ?             [  31  Jan  2017  ]

Peter’s WEB 3.0                                         [  09  Dec  2018  ]

#WiFi #LiFi #Broadband #Internet             [ 08  April   2018  ]  

 


=======================================================================
06  March  2019



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