Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 19 November 2015

BIG BANG REFORMS


Rise   of   the   Middlemen   ?

For long , marketing pundits have been telling us :

"  Internet is all about disintermediation . There is no place for middlemen .

   Distributors / Dealers / Agents / Retailers etc , will gradually become redundant .

   With arrival of Online Market Platforms ( aka, e-Commerce web sites ) , manufacturers
   will accept orders online and directly deliver to end users , bypassing supply chain  "


Coming from Marketing Gurus of Harvard etc, this was accepted as Gospel Truth  !

Now a bunch of Indian Start-ups are proving them wrong !

These are , Bluebox / Browntape / Unicommerce ( and others I have not heard of  )

How  ?

By acting as " Middlemen " ( of some sort  ) between e-Commerce web sites and MSMEs of India

And what role do these " Middlemen " play ?

*   Getting MSME listed on e-Commerce web sites as " Sellers "

*   Cataloguing their products

*   Managing their inventories

*   Reconciling payments

*   Maximizing Sales

*   Photo-shooting products.......etc


Is there a big enough " Market " for such " Middlemen " Start-ups  ?

Consider this :

#   There are 500 lakh MSMEs in India

#   Of these , barely 3.6 lakhs are currently registered as " Sellers " on e-Commerce web
     sites , distributed as follows :

     *   Flipkart...............  60,000    sellers

     *   Amazon.............. 100,000   sellers

     *   Snapdeal............  200,000   sellers


#   Indian e-Commerce market was worth mere $ 5.3 billion in 2014

#   As per Merril Lynch , this would go up to $ 220 billion by 2025, with 530 million buyers


So , there is scope for many more of such " Mentoring Middlemen "


May be some such " Middlemen " can help the MSME to export their products, considering that India's exports have been continuously shrinking for past 10 months

Is there a " Scope " to increase exports from MSME  ?

Take a look at the following :

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country         /     No of  MSME     /     Ave Export / year ( $ )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Singapore     /    9,296                /       6.74    Million
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Malaysia       /    28,840               /       2.05    Million 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.Korea        /    2.9 million           /       45 , 000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
India            /   50 million        /          4, 000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now , even if each of our MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would amount to ,

$ 40,000*50 million  !


Currently each MSME ( on an average ) employs 2.5 persons

How many more persons would 50 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10  times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )

It is reported that , even at the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs every year

For raising (Ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs / year  ?

Enough to absorb the 12 million persons joining our job market each year ?

It is time for Indian Governments ( Central + States ) , to encourage these " Mentoring Middlemen " Start-ups , by abolishing for them , Corporate Income Tax , for next 10 years

Anything other than such a " BIG  BANG  REFORM " , will amount to tinkering !

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen  parekh

19  Nov  2015

B2BmessageBlaster
  
  


From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:13 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: RE: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE

From  Inter-Pol   to   Inter-Mil  ?

Over the past 100 years, countries of the World have instituted quite a few organizations to deal with international issues . These include :

*    United Nations ( earlier, League of Nations ) and its various arms

*    World Bank

*    International Monetary Fund  (  IMF  )

*    World Trade Organization  ( WTO - earlier , UNCTAD )

*    International Court of Justice - Hague

*    Atomic Inspection Agency

*    Environment Protection Agency

and ,

*   International Police ( Inter-Pol )


During the past decade, the World is facing another major international threat to civilization

It is " Terrorism "

" Terrorism " is characterized as follows :

*     Distinct from

       #     Internal conflicts / civil wars , within a nation's boundaries

       #     Localized commotions / disobedience / militancy , within a country

       #     Breakdown of " Law and Order " situations , inside a country

       #     Country's citizens trying to overthrow an oppressive dictatorship / military rule


*    Spread across international borders

*    Unrelated to any geographical / territorial disputes between countries

*    Hiding under fundamentalist ideologies that disregard human rights

*    Trying to overthrow democratically elected legitimate popular governments

*    Killing innocent citizens

*    Poisoning the minds of Youth with hatred for certain peace-loving / non-violent religions
      or philosophies

*    Recruiting children / women as shields against reprisals by legitimate authorities

*    Glorifying suicidal attacks while bombing peaceful gathering of people

*    Aided and abated by black money / arms , from sympathizers everywhere



Of course , this is not a comprehensive definition of " Terrorism " , but it is good enough for UN to adopt it right away

And it is high time , UN forms, along the lines of Inter-Pol ,

Inter- Mil  ( International Military )

And lay down clear and unambiguous rules under which :

*   Any country affected by terrorism, can seek intervention / help from Inter-Mil ,

OR

*   UN itself may take suo moto cognizance of such terrorism anywhere in the World ( and
     not only confined to the territory of a Member Country ) , and act on its own
     to press Inter-Mil into service , to eliminate terrorists and their supporters

    Such unilateral action on part of the Security Council , will not require any " Invitation /
    Permission " from countries affected , nor can such Security Council Resolution be vetoed


I request the readers to " Like / Share / Re-tweet / Forward " this message to policy-makers / opinion-makers , all over the World

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

17  Nov  2015
    




From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2015 1:11 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE

E - Commerce   is    Easy  Commerce  !


Hindustan Times (16 Nov 2015) quotes Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as follows :


"  The Government is working on the definition of E Commerce to clear the air over issues such as taxation and Foreign Investment
We have got the inputs from States . We are in the process of putting it all together  "


Not an easy task to define what is E Commerce ( and what is not ), considering all the possible permutations / combinations ( running into LAKHS of them ! ) , of the following elements :


#    NATURE


      *  A physical " Product " ( Capital Goods / FMCG / Consumables / Perishables )

      *  A virtual " Service "    ( Medical advice / Legal advice / Consultancy / Software etc )



#    GEOGRAPHIC   SPREAD


     *   Across National boundaries    ( International Trade )

     *   Across State boundaries        ( within India )

     *   Across Municipal boundaries   (within a State )



#    SUPPLY- CHAIN   /  INTERMEDIARIES


     *   Mfr  >  Distributor  >  Dealer  >  Retailer  >  Buyer

     *   Mfr  >  Buyer

     *   Any disintermediation in the above chain



#     ORDER  PLACEMENT  /  ACCEPTANCE


     *   In a physical location ( Shop / Store / Office / Factory / Home )

     *   In a virtual location   (Web site/Mobile App/SMS/ Email / Phone / Video Conference  )


#     DELIVERY

     *   Physically in a Shop / Store etc where Buyer collects / picks-up from shelf

     *   Delivered to Buyer's location, thru Delivery Boy

     *   Delivered to Buyer's location, using a Drone

     *   Delivered to Buyer on his home-based 3D Printing Machine  ( using internet )



#    PAYMENT

     *   Cash against delivery

     *   Pre-paid / Post-paid Cheque

     *   Credit / Debit Cards across counter

     *   Credit / Debit Cards thru online Payment Gateways

     *   Through Mobile Wallets

     *   Electronic Bank Transfer

     *   Using Virtual Currency like Bit-Coins

     *   Barter of Goods or Services



#    FOREIGN   INVESTMENTS


    *   FDI in Manufacturing / Supply Chain / Payment Gateways - Apps-  Mobile Wallets
 
    *   FDI in Web sites like Amazon - Flipkart - Alibaba - Snapdeal etc ( What percentage ? )



Can you think of any other " Elements " that I have forgotten  ?


In any case , given the fact that there can be lakhs ( if not millions ) of permutations / combinations of the above-mentioned elements , one must not attempt to define what is E Commerce ( and what is not ) , by inclusion or exclusion of these elements in definition


Such a complex definition would lead to thousands of court cases involving Governments and each court interpreting the definition , differently  !


The only definition that would satisfy  ALL  of these permutations / combinations , is :


Any exchange of " Value " between any number of parties , involving ,

>  Goods or Services , on the part of one party

with,

>  Money or its equivalent consideration , on the part of a second party

with or without using,

>  Intermediary services , on the parts  of any other parties

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

16  Nov  2015

B2BmessageBlaster




        


From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2015 12:21 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: DITCH HISTORICAL BAGGAGE

REDEFINING     MANUFACTURING  ?


Central Government is in the process of re-writing Labour Laws

As a part of this process , Govt wants to re-define " Manufacturing "

Eg:

Under the revised Factory Law , manufacturing is sought to be re-defined as :

"  Any process or activity resulting in any alteration of original character , such as nature, state, shape, size, usefulness, and/or making value addition to the original material acted upon when subjected to the process or activity "

This new definition seeks to keep " packaging " out of the purview of manufacturing !

This seems strange

Barring few very large " products " ( such as Boilers / Reactors / Pressure Vessels ) , every other product has packaging as its final operation , before leaving a factory gate


Then there are " factories " which do nothing more than " package " a product , such as :

*    Bottled mineral Water / Soft drinks / Milk / Oils etc ( liquids of all kinds )

*   Re-packing of Bulk Chemicals / Powders in sachets  ( solids of all kinds )

*   Packing of LPG gas / Oxygen / Industrial Gases in cylinders ( gases of all kinds )

*   Filling of capsules / ampoules ,  with drugs

*   Packing of Vegetables in plastic  shrink-wraps


I am sure , readers will find many similar items , where " packaging " is the ONLY process


Then here is a glimpse of the " Factories of Future " :


*   " Production " of Vegetables in climate-controlled buildings ( existing in Japan )

*   3D printed " Products " in thousands of " homes " ( designs downloaded from internet )

*   Warehouses ( Fulfillment Centers ) of Flipcart / SnapDeal / Amazon etc ( only deliveries )


*   3D printed , " Mass-production "  of buildings on open plots of lands ( WinSun of China )

*   Wind Farms / Solar Power Farms / Geo-thermal power stations


And what about factories which are entirely operated by robots ?  No humans at all  !

Such factories already exist

And factories where there is no " original material " having some " original character " ?

Can someone come up with an example ?


So , what should we do ?

#    Do not anchor  " Factory Act " around " Manufacturing Processes " ; however if you
      must , then retain " packaging " as legitimate manufacturing process in Factories Bill -
      2014

#   Re-name this Act as " Human  Enterprise  Act " , and make it applicable to any
     organization employing 100 or more persons , at a single location , irrespective of the ,

     *     " Original Material " having any " Original Character "

     *      Any " Alteration / Value Addition " taking place

     *      Subjecting the material to any process ( physical or mental )
         
 #    Do not wait for 64 years to amend the Human Enterprise  Act


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

06  Nov  2015

   



NETWORK   OF   CURRENCY    NOTES ?

While inaugurating the International Conference on " Networking the Networks " on Nov 2 , our FM Shri Jaitleyji said :

" Tax evasion and money laundering will become extremely difficult in the next 1-2 years, with the global automatic exchange of information system coming into effect on a real time basis "

To speed up this process and make it truly automatic / real time , I suggest resorting to the following technologies :


#   Internet of Things ( IoT )


     As each currency note of Rs 500 / 1000 , is getting printed , embed it with microscopic
     RFID chips

     Besides communicating with each other , these chips will also transmit their existence
     location , through internet , to cloud-based servers of Income Tax Department

     This will form a " NETWORK  OF  CURRENCY  NOTES ( NoC ) "

     You may like to call this Internet of Currency ( IoC ) , a sub-set of IoT  !



#   Internet Protocol Address System ( IP V 6.0 )

     Each Rs 500 / 1000 currency note must be assigned ( at the time of printing ) , its own
     unique Internet Address , using IP V 6.0

     This IP address should be linked with the unique Serial Number printed on each note.

     Since IP V 6.0 , will be capable of assigning   " 2 * 10 to the power of 128 ", no of  IP
     addresses , there is no danger of running out of addresses , even if we decide to extend
     this idea to Rs 100 currency notes !

    
    
This reform will enable the Central Government / Income Tax Department , to :

*    Continuously trace the movement of each of these higher denomination currency notes

*    Instantly locate any place ( using Google Map based GPS ) , where there is an
     accumulation of more than Rs 1 Crore worth of currency notes

     Such accumulation will be made to appear as a TAG CLOUD on the web site of IT Dept,
     like thousands of balloons floating on a map of India , capable of being drilled down to
     within 1 Sq Meter  !

     On each balloon , will appear a number announcing , " Amount of Cash here - Rs " !

     This will vastly simplify the task of Anti Corruption Dept / Enforcement Dept etc


Of course , my suggestions may become outdated with the arrival of mobile wallets based CASHLESS SOCIETY , by 2030

In the meantime , experts may want to opine whether my suggestions make sense , theoretically and practically ( if so , by when ? ) to tackle the menace of black money generation

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

04  Nov  2015

    

    




DIGITAL   INDIA  ?

To take our GDP growth-rate above 10 % , it is absolutely necessary to empower each and every citizen digitally

This can only happen when all of them get internet-connected

To enable such connectivity , following conditions must be met :


SMART PHONES :

All citizens must have G4 / Wi-Fi capable / GPS - NFC enabled mobile phones
This is something competition among manufacturers will take care



BROAD-BAND  :

Entire country ( every nook and corner ) gets connected with , either land-based fiber optic broadband or wireless broadband , with minimum speed of 100 mbps ( as in S. Korea )

For this , the Central Govt must persuade Google ( Loons ) / Microsoft ( White space ) / Amazon ( low orbit satellites ) and other MSPs



E MAIL  ID :

Every citizen must be, allotted / assigned , a FREE Email Id , based on his / her Aadhar Number ( xyz@digitalindia.com ? )

This must be done by the Central Government



ONLINE  CITIZEN  DATABASE :

E-Mail Ids / Mobile Numbers / Postal Addresses of all the citizens should be easily accessible / searchable in an Online Citizen Database ( remember those printed Phone No Directories of MTNL / BSNL , of 30 years ago ? )

Any citizen can EDIT his own database by login from his Mobile phone only

And why not a similar ONLINE / freely SEARCHABLE database of :

#    3+ Lakh Companies in Organized Sector

#    30 + Million MSME Companies

And why not enable anyone to be able to send E Mail Messages to any of these Companies from the web site of Department of Company Affairs or of Registrar of Companies or of web site of Ministry of MSME ?

Just imagine the boost this small step will give to trade !




INTERNET  ADDRESS :

All electrically / electronically operated devices / gadgets / appliances etc , must be assigned IP V 6.0 address , before being sold

Beginning may be made with screens of all types ( Mobile / Tablets / PC / TV / Bank Locker Cover , etc )

And , above all , the UNIQUE SERIAL NUMBER on each currency note of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 , will also become it's IP V 6.0 address

Let IoT ( Internet of Things ) begin with these currency notes

Mr Vishal Sikka would be glad to help out !



TRACKING   MONEY   FLOW  :

All currency notes of Rs 500 / 1000 , to have built-in RFID chips

Accumulation of a large number of RFID chips in any single location ( including private safe deposit lockers / wall cavities etc ) , to show up as a TAG CLOUD , on web site of Income Tax Department / Google Maps etc

Implication of this " Reform " is enormous

Currently , some 97 % of payments in India are made in cash

This reform alone will ensure that , within one year , ALL payments are made through Cheques / official banking channels / mobile wallets !

Who wants a BIG tag-cloud on his bank locker ?


Now couple this with other following reforms :

*  Abolish Personal Income Tax (Revenue loss = Rs 2.45 lakh*crores )

*  Introduce Bank Transaction Tax - BTT ( Income = Rs 15 lakh*crore )

GST revenue due to those 97 % official payments  (Additional Rs 50 lakh*crore ? )

*  Other reforms suggested by at..www...hemenparekh...in>Blog such as

  #    Conducting ALL elections , using  : VotesApp : mobile app

  #    Delivery of Govt services , using : I SIN><U SIN : mobile app

  #    Eliminate Black Money ( Create Wealth to Create Jobs )

  #    Generate Clean Energy ( From Greed to Great ? )

  #    Health Care  ( 3D-Digital Delivery of Drugs )

  #    Paperless Society  ( Digital Locker )

  #    Govt Budgets ( Budgeting by Objectives  )

  #    Increase Domestic Saving-rate ( Jan Dhan Sarjan Yojana )


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh / 0 - 98,67,55,08,08

Mumbai


02  Nov  2015



From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 12:40 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: ALTERNATIVE TO EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS

A faster / cheaper / accurate ,  alternative to

ANNUAL   EMPLOYMENT   SURVEY  ?
---------------------------------------------------------------

 A Proposal submitted to

  *  Shri TCA Anant ,
      Chief Statistician ,
      Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,
      Government of India ,
     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Suggested By :

hemen  parekh
mumbai / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
27  Oct  2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I have a database of over 5 million job advts , downloaded over the past 6 / 7 years from various job portals of India

Each job advt database consists of :

Advt ID

Designation ( being advertised )

Company Name ( Advertiser )

Job Description

Desired Profile

Compensation Offered

Experience ( desired ) – Years

Industry Type

Education Quali ( Min )

Location ( Posting City )

Keywords

Advt Posting  Date

Expiry Date


Some years back , ( when our website , www.World-Wide-Jobs.com , was up and running ) , we had developed a feature to analyze this database and display the findings visually , in different ways

We were displaying PIE-CHARTS of :

Industry-wise Jobs

City-wise Jobs


You will observe that , with a much larger database available now , it is possible to analyze / display the “ No of Jobs “ , in many more ways

Not only that , it should be possible to analyze this huge database to predict the future expected PATTERN of the occurrence of jobs , in many different ways !


At any given time , the number of jobs getting advertised , is an important Economic Indicator

If economy is booming and company Order Books are getting fatter , then more jobs will get advertized – and vice-versa

Hence , a time-series analysis of the no of new jobs getting posted on job portals , has a  straight line relationship with the state of the economy ( a high co-efficient of correlation )

Apart from that , can a Data mining of 5 million jobs , answer ( even partially ) , the following questions ?

Who ( which Companies ) are advertizing and when ?

What jobs / vacancies / positions are being advertized ?

What is the frequency with which a particular job gets advertized ? By entire industry ? By a given Company ?

Which regions / cities have max / min no of new jobs ?

What are regional disparities due to ?

Which Industries are advertising most – creating most jobs ?

What Edu Qualifications are in max demand ?

What kind of jobs demand what kind of Edu Qualifications ?

What is the level of co-relation between , Position and the years of Experience demanded ?

For identical positions being advertized , how much do “ Job Descriptions / Desired Profiles “ differ, from company to company ?

Are there significant differences in the “ No of years of Experience “ being demanded , for identical positions ?

What is the probability of finding the “ Keywords “ in “ Job Description / Desired Profile “ ?

What is the extent of duplication ( redundancy ? ) between , “ Job Description “ and “ Desired Profile “ ?

What percentage of Advts fail to make any mention of , Compensation Offered ?

When a company posts an advt for same / identical position , at different points of time , are there any differences in values ( fields ) ?

From an analysis of all the advts posted by a given Company ( over past 7 years ) , can any conclusion be reached as to the changing nature of that company’s business (by co-relating the “ Skills related Keywords “)?

Can the algorithm predict what job a company will advertize next – and when ?

Is there any correlation between , “ Designation / Position “ and the “ Keywords “ ?

From analyzing this huge data , can software auto-generate , a complete / editable job advt , as soon as a Recruiter simply types the “ Designation / Position “ ?

I believe , so far , no one has undertaken such a Data mining project

If carried out diligently , I am sure , the outcome would be of immense benefit to :

HR Managers
      for Manpower Planning / Compensation Planning

Recruiting Managers
      for framing Man Specifications / Job Description Manuals

Educationists
      for deciding what Edu Quali are in demand and tailor the Courses

Students
      to figure out what “ Skills “ are in demand by Industry and prepare

Planning Commission ( NITI Aayog )
      for allocating Resources to States / Regions , based on imbalances

 HRD Ministry
       For long term Macro-Planning in respect of Education

National Skills Development Commission
      for chalking out Skills Development Programs in collaboration with Companies / Industries

If undertaken – and executed seriously – then this Data mining project has the potential to place

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,

 on the Centre-Stage of National Education Planning Scenario


What can / will such a project yield ?


Without exaggerating , it would be safe to assume that , this vast database of job advts would contain :

50 million phrases / sentences

500 million words

Obviously , each word / phrase / sentence , is nothing more than a

Database of Intentions “ of the Employer Companies

( to borrow from John Battelle’s well-researched book about Google )


Our goal shall be to make this ( Data mining Algorithm ) a dynamic / continuous “ Process “ , so that , we can measure the changing nature of these “ Intentions “ , over a long , long period


And we must enable a “ Researching Visitor ( of web site ) “, to benefit from these trends / patterns


Even though 5 million job advts may contain 500 million “ words “ , these are not Unique

 

Most of these are used again and again , hundreds or thousands of times

 

Thru data mining , it is not difficult to compute their “ Frequency of Usage “

 

And then , these frequencies can be graphically plotted against any particular time-period

 

Such Graphical Representations can be further broken up by ,

 

City Names

 

Company Names

 

Industry Names

 

Function Names

 

Designations ( Vacancy Names ).. etc

 

And such graphical analysis can be done , not only for “ Keywords “ but even for “ Key Phrases “ and “ Sentences “ !



Take a look at this project paper ( NOT ENCLOSED )


It is all about data mining of some 150 million records ( location points ) and about uncovering “ trends / patterns “ of physical movements of 300 human volunteers , over a “  period of time  “

I quote from article in Times of India ( 19 July 2013 ) :


“ ..the first system of its kind to predict long term human mobility in a unified way , parse the data. " Far Out " does not need to be told exactly what to look for  --- it automatically discovered regularities in the data “


“ Do you know precisely where you’ll be 285 days from now at 2 pm ?



Researchers have developed a new tracking software that can tell you exactly where you will be on a precise time and date , years into the future “



What we want to do with 5 million job advts database , is quite similar, viz ;

 predict ,

 WHO     ( which Company / Industry ) , will advertize

 WHAT   ( vacancies / positions / designations ),  and

 WHEN   ( time )



I am talking about developing an “ Expert System “ , thru discovery of specific “ Co-relations “ amongst various Data Fields of 5 million job advts

Eg :
Ø  What is the Co-relation between , any given

Ø  Designation / Vacancy-Name / Advertized Position ,

 and

Ø   Educational Qualifications  ?

Here are some examples :

Ø  Any designation  such as “ Production Manager “ would call for an “ Engineering Degree / Diploma “ ( but never a CS / CA )

Ø  Any designation in “ Finance Function “ will require,
B Com
M Com
CA    etc
       But never a BE(M ) / BE (Chem )

Ø  Any designation at Manager level will call for a minimum experience of 5 years ( but never a Fresh Graduate with NIL experience )

Ø  MBA / BBA / MMS etc are the most preferred Edu Qualifications for positions in Marketing


Ø  No vacancy in an Automobile Manufacturing Company , will call for a degree in Pharmaceutical

Ø  No Electrical Machinery Manufacturing company will ever demand a Medical Degree (MBBS )

To a human mind , these ( rules ) are so obvious !

But , no human mind can write-down ALL of such RULES , in 2 minutes ! – something that your Data mining Software can – and will – do in 5 seconds !

All that you need , after computing “ Frequencies of Occurrences “ , is to :
Ø  Plot the Co-efficients of Co-relations between various Fields ( of job advts )

Ø  Compute Probabilities for each and create hundreds of Probability Tables

And , since a thousand new job advts are getting added to our Job Advt Database , daily , the SAMPLE SIZE is perpetually increasing – thereby , increasing the Accuracies of your Predictions !

Having done this , imagine the following scenario :

Recruitment Officer of Wipro , comes to our “ Post Job “ page and , in the field for “ Designation “ simply types ,
“ Business Analyst “

And Presto !

The entire Job Advt Form gets auto-filled , with MOST PROBABLE values !

Would not that amaze her ?

All that our software has done is analyzed job advts of all “ Software Companies “ ( an Industry ),– and of WIPRO – for the position of Business Analyst and filled in the most probable values

This is no rocket science !

We had actually , partially attempted it – albeit in a crude way – in our earlier web site ,


What surprises me is , how come no one has attempted this so far !

Especially , Naukri / TimesJobs / MonsterIndia , who have accumulated millions of job advts !

Anyway , the fact that they have , so far , ignored this  Line of Examination , will work to the advantage of

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 – making YOU the very first person in the entire world to come up with a

>   PREDICTION MODEL in the area of JOBS
            

However , without applying some simple data mining tool , it would not be possible to answer the following questions :

Where is the greatest decline of jobs being advertized ?

How much is the percentage decline ?

In which Industry ?

In which Company ?

In which City ?

In which Region ?

In which Skills ?

For which Positions ?

For which Education Levels ? ………… etc

With a data mining tool , such individual graphs could emerge ( within fraction of a second ) at the click of a button !

One could even co-relate these graphs with other ,
 publicly available statistical data such as :

IIP   ( Index of Industrial Production )

Stock Market Index

Currency Exchange Rate ( eg; declining Rupee )

Decline in GDP / Increasing Fiscal Deficit

CAD ( Current Account Deficit )

Foreign Investments

Primary Bank Rates of RBI…………………………….etc


With proper co-relations , one could even predict how much the job market will further shrink , over the next 6 months ! or grow ?

Such” Predictive Model of Job Market “, would be of immense interest to , not only the economists but also to the
 HRD Ministry /
 Planning Commission /
 Educational Institutions and of course the
students themselves




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