Rise of the
Middlemen ?
For
long , marketing pundits have been telling us :
"
Internet is all about disintermediation . There is no place for middlemen .
Distributors / Dealers / Agents / Retailers etc , will gradually become
redundant .
With arrival of Online Market Platforms ( aka, e-Commerce web sites ) ,
manufacturers
will accept orders online and directly deliver to end users , bypassing supply
chain "
Coming
from Marketing Gurus of Harvard etc, this was accepted as Gospel Truth !
Now
a bunch of Indian Start-ups are proving them wrong !
These
are , Bluebox / Browntape / Unicommerce ( and others I have not heard of
)
How
?
By
acting as " Middlemen " ( of some sort ) between e-Commerce web
sites and MSMEs of India
And
what role do these " Middlemen " play ?
*
Getting MSME listed on e-Commerce web sites as " Sellers "
*
Cataloguing their products
*
Managing their inventories
*
Reconciling payments
*
Maximizing Sales
*
Photo-shooting products.......etc
Is
there a big enough " Market " for such " Middlemen "
Start-ups ?
Consider
this :
#
There are 500 lakh MSMEs in India
#
Of these , barely 3.6 lakhs are currently registered as " Sellers "
on e-Commerce web
sites , distributed as follows :
* Flipkart............... 60,000 sellers
* Amazon.............. 100,000 sellers
* Snapdeal............ 200,000 sellers
#
Indian e-Commerce market was worth mere $ 5.3 billion in 2014
#
As per Merril Lynch , this would go up to $ 220 billion by 2025, with 530
million buyers
So
, there is scope for many more of such " Mentoring
Middlemen "
May
be some such " Middlemen " can help the MSME to export their
products, considering that India's exports have been continuously shrinking for
past 10 months
Is
there a " Scope " to increase exports from MSME ?
Take
a look at the following :
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country
/ No of MSME /
Ave Export / year ( $ )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Singapore
/
9,296
/ 6.74 Million
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Malaysia
/
28,840
/ 2.05 Million
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S.Korea
/ 2.9
million
/ 45 , 000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
India
/ 50 million
/ 4, 000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now , even if each of our
MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would
amount to ,
$ 40,000*50
million !
Currently each MSME ( on an
average ) employs 2.5 persons
How many more persons would
50 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10
times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )
It is reported that , even at
the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs
every year
For raising
(Ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs
/ year ?
Enough to absorb the 12
million persons joining our job market each year ?
It is time for Indian
Governments ( Central + States ) , to encourage these " Mentoring
Middlemen " Start-ups , by abolishing for them , Corporate
Income Tax , for next 10 years
Anything
other than such a " BIG
BANG REFORM
" , will amount to tinkering !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh
19
Nov 2015
B2BmessageBlaster
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:13 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: RE: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE
Sent: Tuesday, November 17, 2015 11:13 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: RE: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE
From Inter-Pol to Inter-Mil ?
Over
the past 100 years, countries of the World have instituted quite a few
organizations to deal with international issues . These include :
*
United Nations ( earlier, League of Nations ) and its various arms
*
World Bank
*
International Monetary Fund ( IMF )
*
World Trade Organization ( WTO - earlier , UNCTAD )
*
International Court of Justice - Hague
*
Atomic Inspection Agency
*
Environment Protection Agency
and
,
*
International Police ( Inter-Pol )
During
the past decade, the World is facing another major international threat to
civilization
It
is " Terrorism "
"
Terrorism " is characterized as follows :
*
Distinct from
# Internal conflicts / civil wars , within a nation's
boundaries
# Localized commotions / disobedience / militancy ,
within a country
# Breakdown of " Law and Order " situations ,
inside a country
# Country's citizens trying to overthrow an oppressive
dictatorship / military rule
*
Spread across international borders
*
Unrelated to any geographical / territorial disputes between countries
*
Hiding under fundamentalist ideologies that disregard human rights
*
Trying to overthrow democratically elected legitimate popular governments
*
Killing innocent citizens
*
Poisoning the minds of Youth with hatred for certain peace-loving / non-violent
religions
or philosophies
*
Recruiting children / women as shields against reprisals by legitimate
authorities
*
Glorifying suicidal attacks while bombing peaceful gathering of people
*
Aided and abated by black money / arms , from sympathizers everywhere
Of
course , this is not a comprehensive definition of " Terrorism " ,
but it is good enough for UN to adopt it right away
And
it is high time , UN forms, along the lines of Inter-Pol
,
Inter- Mil ( International Military )
And
lay down clear and unambiguous rules under which :
*
Any country affected by terrorism, can seek intervention / help from Inter-Mil ,
OR
*
UN itself may take suo moto cognizance of such terrorism anywhere in the World
( and
not only confined to the territory of a Member Country ) , and act on its own
to press Inter-Mil into service , to eliminate terrorists and their
supporters
Such unilateral action on part of the Security Council , will not require any
" Invitation /
Permission " from countries affected , nor can such Security Council
Resolution be vetoed
I
request the readers to " Like / Share / Re-tweet / Forward " this
message to policy-makers / opinion-makers , all over the World
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh
17
Nov 2015
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2015 1:11 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2015 1:11 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: E COMMERCE IS EASY COMMERCE
E - Commerce is Easy
Commerce !
Hindustan
Times (16 Nov 2015) quotes Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as follows :
"
The Government is working on the definition of E Commerce to clear the air over
issues such as taxation and Foreign Investment
We
have got the inputs from States . We are in the process of putting it all
together "
Not
an easy task to define what is E Commerce ( and what is not ), considering all the
possible permutations / combinations ( running into LAKHS of them ! ) , of the
following elements :
# NATURE
* A physical " Product " ( Capital Goods / FMCG / Consumables /
Perishables )
* A virtual " Service " ( Medical advice /
Legal advice / Consultancy / Software etc )
# GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD
* Across National boundaries ( International
Trade )
* Across State boundaries
( within India )
* Across Municipal boundaries (within a State )
# SUPPLY- CHAIN /
INTERMEDIARIES
* Mfr > Distributor > Dealer
> Retailer > Buyer
* Mfr > Buyer
* Any disintermediation in the above chain
# ORDER PLACEMENT
/ ACCEPTANCE
* In a physical location ( Shop / Store / Office / Factory / Home )
* In a virtual location (Web site/Mobile App/SMS/ Email
/ Phone / Video Conference )
# DELIVERY
* Physically in a Shop / Store etc where Buyer collects / picks-up
from shelf
* Delivered to Buyer's location, thru Delivery Boy
* Delivered to Buyer's location, using a Drone
* Delivered to Buyer on his home-based 3D Printing Machine (
using internet )
# PAYMENT
* Cash against delivery
* Pre-paid / Post-paid Cheque
* Credit / Debit Cards across counter
* Credit / Debit Cards thru online Payment Gateways
* Through Mobile Wallets
* Electronic Bank Transfer
* Using Virtual Currency like Bit-Coins
* Barter of Goods or Services
# FOREIGN INVESTMENTS
* FDI in Manufacturing / Supply Chain / Payment Gateways -
Apps- Mobile Wallets
* FDI in Web sites like Amazon - Flipkart - Alibaba - Snapdeal etc
( What percentage ? )
Can
you think of any other " Elements " that I have forgotten ?
In
any case , given the fact that there can be lakhs ( if not millions ) of permutations
/ combinations of the above-mentioned elements , one must not attempt to define
what is E Commerce ( and what is not ) , by inclusion or exclusion of these
elements in definition
Such a complex definition would lead to thousands of court cases
involving Governments and each court interpreting the definition ,
differently !
The
only definition that would satisfy ALL of these
permutations / combinations , is :
Any exchange of " Value " between any number of
parties , involving ,
> Goods or Services , on the part of one party
with,
> Money or its equivalent consideration , on the part
of a second party
with or without using,
> Intermediary services , on the parts of any
other parties
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh
16
Nov 2015
B2BmessageBlaster
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2015 12:21 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: DITCH HISTORICAL BAGGAGE
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2015 12:21 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: DITCH HISTORICAL BAGGAGE
REDEFINING MANUFACTURING ?
Central
Government is in the process of re-writing Labour Laws
As
a part of this process , Govt wants to re-define " Manufacturing "
Eg:
Under
the revised Factory Law , manufacturing is sought to be re-defined as :
"
Any process or activity resulting in any alteration
of original character , such as nature,
state, shape, size, usefulness, and/or making value
addition to the original material
acted upon when subjected to the process or activity "
This
new definition seeks to keep " packaging " out of the purview of
manufacturing !
This
seems strange
Barring
few very large " products " ( such as Boilers / Reactors / Pressure
Vessels ) , every other product has packaging as its final operation , before
leaving a factory gate
Then
there are " factories " which do nothing more than " package
" a product , such as :
*
Bottled mineral Water / Soft drinks / Milk / Oils etc ( liquids of all kinds )
*
Re-packing of Bulk Chemicals / Powders in sachets ( solids of all kinds )
*
Packing of LPG gas / Oxygen / Industrial Gases in cylinders ( gases of all
kinds )
*
Filling of capsules / ampoules , with drugs
*
Packing of Vegetables in plastic shrink-wraps
I
am sure , readers will find many similar items , where
" packaging " is the ONLY process
Then
here is a glimpse of the " Factories of Future " :
*
" Production " of Vegetables in climate-controlled buildings (
existing in Japan )
*
3D printed " Products " in thousands of " homes " ( designs
downloaded from internet )
*
Warehouses ( Fulfillment Centers ) of Flipcart / SnapDeal / Amazon etc ( only
deliveries )
*
3D printed , " Mass-production " of buildings on open plots of
lands ( WinSun of China )
*
Wind Farms / Solar Power Farms / Geo-thermal power stations
And
what about factories which are entirely
operated by robots ? No humans at all !
Such
factories already exist
And
factories where there is no " original
material " having some " original
character " ?
Can
someone come up with an example ?
So
, what should we do ?
#
Do not anchor " Factory Act " around " Manufacturing Processes " ; however if
you
must , then retain " packaging " as legitimate manufacturing process
in Factories Bill -
2014
#
Re-name this Act as " Human Enterprise Act " , and make
it applicable to any
organization employing 100 or more persons , at a single location ,
irrespective of the ,
* " Original Material " having any "
Original Character "
* Any " Alteration / Value Addition "
taking place
* Subjecting the material to any process (
physical or mental )
#
Do not wait for 64 years to amend the Human Enterprise Act
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh
06
Nov 2015
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 04, 2015 11:44 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: RE: DIGITAL INDIA
Sent: Wednesday, November 04, 2015 11:44 AM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: RE: DIGITAL INDIA
NETWORK OF
CURRENCY NOTES ?
While
inaugurating the International Conference on " Networking the Networks
" on Nov 2 , our FM Shri Jaitleyji said :
"
Tax evasion and money laundering will become extremely difficult in the next
1-2 years, with the global automatic exchange of information system coming into
effect on a real time basis "
To
speed up this process and make it truly automatic / real time , I suggest
resorting to the following technologies :
# Internet of Things ( IoT )
As
each currency note of Rs 500 / 1000 , is getting printed , embed it with
microscopic
RFID chips
Besides communicating with each other , these chips will also transmit their
existence
location , through internet , to cloud-based servers of Income Tax Department
This will form a " NETWORK OF
CURRENCY NOTES ( NoC ) "
You may like to call this Internet of Currency ( IoC )
, a sub-set of IoT !
# Internet Protocol Address System ( IP V 6.0 )
Each
Rs 500 / 1000 currency note must be assigned ( at the time of printing ) , its
own
unique Internet Address , using IP V 6.0
This IP address should be linked with the unique Serial Number printed on each
note.
Since IP V 6.0 , will be capable of assigning " 2 * 10 to the power of 128 ", no of IP
addresses , there is no danger of running out of addresses , even if we decide
to extend
this idea to Rs 100 currency notes !
This
reform will enable the Central Government / Income Tax Department , to :
*
Continuously trace the movement of each of these higher denomination currency
notes
*
Instantly locate any place ( using Google Map based GPS ) , where there is an
accumulation of more than Rs 1 Crore worth of currency notes
Such accumulation will be made to appear as a TAG CLOUD on the web site of IT
Dept,
like thousands of balloons floating on a map of India , capable of being
drilled down to
within 1 Sq Meter !
On each balloon , will appear a number announcing , " Amount of Cash here
- Rs " !
This will vastly simplify the task of Anti Corruption Dept / Enforcement Dept
etc
Of
course , my suggestions may become outdated with the arrival of mobile wallets
based CASHLESS SOCIETY , by 2030
In
the meantime , experts may want to opine whether my suggestions make sense ,
theoretically and practically ( if so , by when ? ) to tackle the menace of
black money generation
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh
04
Nov 2015
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Monday, November 02, 2015 7:00 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: DIGITAL INDIA
Sent: Monday, November 02, 2015 7:00 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: DIGITAL INDIA
DIGITAL INDIA ?
To
take our GDP growth-rate above 10 % , it is absolutely necessary to empower
each and every citizen digitally
This
can only happen when all of them get internet-connected
To
enable such connectivity , following conditions must be met :
SMART PHONES :
All
citizens must have G4 / Wi-Fi capable / GPS - NFC enabled mobile phones
This
is something competition among manufacturers will take care
BROAD-BAND
:
Entire
country ( every nook and corner ) gets connected with , either land-based fiber
optic broadband or wireless broadband , with minimum speed of 100 mbps ( as in
S. Korea )
For
this , the Central Govt must persuade Google ( Loons ) / Microsoft ( White
space ) / Amazon ( low orbit satellites ) and other MSPs
E MAIL ID :
Every
citizen must be, allotted / assigned , a FREE Email Id , based on his / her
Aadhar Number ( xyz@digitalindia.com
? )
This
must be done by the Central Government
ONLINE CITIZEN DATABASE :
E-Mail
Ids / Mobile Numbers / Postal Addresses of all the citizens should be easily
accessible / searchable in an Online Citizen Database ( remember those printed
Phone No Directories of MTNL / BSNL , of 30 years ago ? )
Any
citizen can EDIT his own database by login from his Mobile phone only
And
why not a similar ONLINE / freely SEARCHABLE database of :
#
3+ Lakh Companies in Organized Sector
#
30 + Million MSME Companies
And
why not enable anyone to be able to send E Mail Messages to any of these
Companies from the web site of Department of Company Affairs or of Registrar of
Companies or of web site of Ministry of MSME ?
Just
imagine the boost this small step will give to trade !
INTERNET ADDRESS :
All
electrically / electronically operated devices / gadgets / appliances etc ,
must be assigned IP V 6.0 address , before being sold
Beginning
may be made with screens of all types ( Mobile / Tablets / PC / TV / Bank
Locker Cover , etc )
And , above all , the UNIQUE SERIAL NUMBER on each currency
note of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 , will also become it's IP V 6.0 address
Let IoT ( Internet of Things ) begin with these currency
notes
Mr
Vishal Sikka would be glad to help out !
TRACKING MONEY FLOW :
All currency notes of Rs 500 / 1000 , to have built-in RFID
chips
Accumulation of a large number of RFID chips in any single
location ( including private safe deposit lockers / wall cavities etc ) , to
show up as a TAG CLOUD , on web site of Income Tax Department / Google Maps etc
Implication of this " Reform " is enormous
Currently
, some 97 % of payments in India are made in cash
This reform alone will ensure that , within one year , ALL
payments are made through Cheques / official banking channels / mobile wallets
!
Who wants a BIG tag-cloud on his bank locker ?
Now
couple this with other following reforms :
*
Abolish Personal Income Tax (Revenue
loss = Rs 2.45 lakh*crores )
*
Introduce Bank Transaction Tax - BTT (
Income = Rs 15 lakh*crore )
*
GST revenue due to those 97 % official
payments (Additional Rs 50 lakh*crore ? )
*
Other reforms suggested by at..www...hemenparekh...in>Blog
such as
# Conducting ALL elections
, using : VotesApp : mobile app
# Delivery of Govt services
, using : I
SIN><U SIN
: mobile app
# Eliminate Black Money
( Create Wealth to Create Jobs )
# Generate Clean Energy
( From Greed to Great ? )
# Health Care (
3D-Digital Delivery of Drugs )
# Paperless Society
( Digital Locker )
# Govt Budgets (
Budgeting by Objectives )
# Increase Domestic
Saving-rate ( Jan Dhan Sarjan Yojana )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen
parekh / 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
Mumbai
02
Nov 2015
From: Hemen Parekh
[mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 12:40 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: ALTERNATIVE TO EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS
Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2015 12:40 PM
To: Hemen Parekh; 'shaktikanta.das@nic.in'; 'narendramodi1234@gmail.com'
Cc: 'Hasmukh Adhia'; 'ajaitley@del5.vsnl.net.in'; 'jayant.sinha19@sansad.nic.in'; 'piyush.goyal@gov.in'; 'nitin.gadkari@nic.in'; 'spprabhu1@rediffmail.com'; 'kalraj@kalrajmishra.com'; 'bandaru@sansad.nic.in'; 'amitabh.kant@nic.in'; 'smritizirani@nic.in'; 'nsitharaman@nic.in'
Subject: ALTERNATIVE TO EMPLOYMENT SURVEYS
A
faster / cheaper / accurate , alternative to
ANNUAL
EMPLOYMENT SURVEY ?
---------------------------------------------------------------
A
Proposal submitted to
* Shri TCA Anant ,
Chief Statistician ,
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,
Government of India ,
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Suggested
By :
hemen
parekh
mumbai
/ (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
27
Oct 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Each job advt database consists of :
Advt ID
Designation ( being advertised )
Company Name ( Advertiser )
Job Description
Desired Profile
Compensation Offered
Experience ( desired ) – Years
Industry Type
Education Quali ( Min )
Location ( Posting City )
Keywords
Advt Posting Date
Expiry Date
We were displaying PIE-CHARTS of :
Industry-wise Jobs
City-wise Jobs
You will observe that , with a much larger database available now , it is possible to analyze / display the “ No of Jobs “ , in many more ways
Not only that , it should be possible to analyze this huge database to predict the future expected PATTERN of the occurrence of jobs , in many different ways !
At any given time , the number of jobs getting advertised , is an important Economic Indicator
If economy is booming and company Order Books are getting fatter , then more jobs will get advertized – and vice-versa
Hence , a time-series analysis of the no of new jobs getting posted on job portals , has a straight line relationship with the state of the economy ( a high co-efficient of correlation )
Apart from that , can a Data mining of 5 million jobs , answer ( even partially ) , the following questions ?
Who ( which Companies ) are advertizing and when ?
What jobs / vacancies / positions are being advertized ?
What is the frequency with
which a particular job gets advertized ? By entire industry ? By a given
Company ?
Which regions / cities have max / min no of new jobs ?
What are regional disparities
due to ?
Which Industries are
advertising most – creating most jobs ?
What Edu Qualifications are
in max demand ?
What kind of jobs demand what kind of Edu Qualifications ?
What is the level of co-relation between , Position and the years
of Experience demanded ?
For identical positions being advertized , how much do “ Job
Descriptions / Desired Profiles “ differ, from company to company ?
Are there significant differences in the “ No of years of
Experience “ being demanded , for identical positions ?
What is the probability of finding the “ Keywords “ in “ Job
Description / Desired Profile “ ?
What is the extent of duplication ( redundancy ? ) between , “ Job
Description “ and “ Desired Profile “ ?
What percentage of Advts fail to make any mention of , Compensation
Offered ?
When a company posts an advt for same / identical position , at
different points of time , are there any differences in values ( fields ) ?
From an analysis of all the advts posted by a given Company ( over
past 7 years ) , can any conclusion be reached as to the changing nature of
that company’s business (by co-relating the “ Skills related Keywords “)?
Can the algorithm predict what job a company will advertize next –
and when ?
Is there any correlation between , “ Designation / Position “ and
the “ Keywords “ ?
From analyzing this huge data , can software auto-generate , a
complete / editable job advt , as soon as a Recruiter simply types the “
Designation / Position “ ?
I believe , so far , no one has undertaken such a Data mining project
If carried out diligently , I am sure , the outcome would be of immense benefit to :
HR Managers
for Manpower Planning / Compensation Planning
Recruiting Managers
for framing Man Specifications / Job Description Manuals
Educationists
for deciding what Edu Quali are in demand and tailor the Courses
Students
to figure out what “ Skills “ are in demand by Industry and prepare
Planning Commission ( NITI Aayog )
for allocating Resources to States / Regions , based on imbalances
HRD Ministry
For long term Macro-Planning in respect of Education
National Skills Development Commission
for chalking out Skills Development Programs in collaboration with Companies /
Industries Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation ,
on the Centre-Stage of National Education Planning Scenario
What
can / will such a project yield ?
Without
exaggerating , it would be safe to assume that , this vast database of job
advts would contain :
50
million phrases / sentences
500
million words
Obviously
, each word / phrase / sentence , is nothing more than a
“
Database of Intentions “ of the Employer Companies
(
to borrow from John Battelle’s well-researched book about Google )
Our
goal shall be to make this ( Data mining Algorithm ) a dynamic / continuous “
Process “ , so that , we can measure the changing nature of these “ Intentions
“ , over a long , long period
And
we must enable a “ Researching Visitor ( of web site ) “, to benefit from these
trends / patterns
Even
though 5 million job advts may contain 500 million “ words “ , these are not
Unique
Most
of these are used again and again , hundreds or thousands of times
Thru
data mining , it is not difficult to compute their “ Frequency of Usage “
And
then , these frequencies can be graphically plotted against any particular
time-period
Such
Graphical Representations can be further broken up by ,
City Names
Company Names
Industry Names
Function Names
Designations ( Vacancy Names ).. etc
And
such graphical analysis can be done , not only for “ Keywords “ but even for “
Key Phrases “ and “ Sentences “ !
Take
a look at this project paper ( NOT ENCLOSED )
It
is all about data mining of some 150 million records ( location points ) and about
uncovering “ trends / patterns “ of physical movements of 300 human volunteers
, over a “ period of time “
I
quote from article in Times of India ( 19 July
2013 ) :
“
..the first system of its kind to predict long term human mobility in a unified
way , parse the data. " Far Out " does
not need to be told exactly what to look for --- it automatically
discovered regularities in the data “
“
Do you know precisely where you’ll be 285 days from now at 2 pm ?
Researchers
have developed a new tracking software that can tell you exactly where you will
be on a precise time and date , years into the future “
What
we want to do with 5 million job advts database , is quite similar, viz ;
predict
,
WHO ( which Company / Industry
) , will advertize
WHAT
( vacancies / positions / designations ), and
WHEN ( time )
I am talking about developing an “ Expert System “ , thru
discovery of specific “ Co-relations “ amongst various Data Fields of 5 million
job advts
Eg :
Ø
What is the Co-relation between , any given
Ø
“ Designation / Vacancy-Name / Advertized Position ,
and
Ø
Educational Qualifications ?
Here are some examples :
Ø
Any designation such as “ Production Manager “ would call
for an “ Engineering Degree / Diploma “ ( but never a CS / CA )
Ø
Any designation in “ Finance Function “ will require,
B Com
M Com
CA etc
But never a BE(M ) / BE (Chem
)
Ø
Any designation at Manager level will call for a minimum
experience of 5 years ( but never a Fresh Graduate with NIL experience )
Ø
MBA / BBA / MMS etc are the most preferred Edu Qualifications for
positions in Marketing
Ø
No vacancy in an Automobile Manufacturing Company , will call for
a degree in Pharmaceutical
Ø
No Electrical Machinery Manufacturing company will ever demand a
Medical Degree (MBBS )
To a human mind , these ( rules ) are so obvious !
But , no human mind can write-down ALL of such RULES , in 2
minutes ! – something that your Data mining Software can – and will – do in 5
seconds !
All that you need , after computing “ Frequencies of Occurrences “
, is to :
Ø
Plot the Co-efficients of Co-relations between various Fields ( of job advts )
Ø
Compute Probabilities for each and create hundreds of Probability Tables
And , since a thousand new job advts are getting added to our Job
Advt Database , daily , the SAMPLE SIZE is perpetually increasing – thereby ,
increasing the Accuracies of your Predictions !
Having done this , imagine the following scenario :
Recruitment Officer of Wipro , comes to our “ Post Job “ page and
, in the field for “ Designation “ simply types ,
“ Business Analyst “
And Presto !
The entire Job Advt Form gets auto-filled , with MOST PROBABLE
values !
Would not that amaze her ?
All that our software has done is analyzed job advts of all “
Software Companies “ ( an Industry ),– and of WIPRO – for the position of
Business Analyst and filled in the most probable values
This is no rocket science !
We had actually , partially attempted it – albeit in a crude way –
in our earlier web site ,
What surprises me is , how come no one has attempted this so far !
Especially , Naukri / TimesJobs / MonsterIndia , who have
accumulated millions of job advts !
Anyway , the fact that they have , so far , ignored this
Line of Examination , will work to the advantage of
Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation
– making YOU the very first person in the entire world to come up with
a
> PREDICTION MODEL
in the area of JOBS
Where is the greatest decline of jobs being advertized ?
How much is the percentage decline ?
In which Industry ?
In which Company ?
In which City ?
In which Region ?
In which Skills ?
For which Positions ?
For which Education Levels ? ………… etc
One could even co-relate these graphs with other ,
publicly available statistical data such as :
IIP ( Index of Industrial Production )
Stock Market Index
Currency Exchange Rate ( eg; declining Rupee )
Decline in GDP / Increasing Fiscal Deficit
CAD ( Current Account Deficit )
Foreign Investments
Primary Bank Rates of RBI…………………………….etc
With proper co-relations , one could even predict how much the job market will further shrink , over the next 6 months ! or grow ?
Such” Predictive Model of Job
Market “, would be of immense interest to , not only the economists but
also to the
HRD Ministry /
Planning Commission /
Educational Institutions and of course the
students themselves
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