Friday, 17 November 2023

DEAR NAMO : HERE IS THE ONLY WAY TO ADD 400 GW OF SOLAR BY 2030

Vishwa Karma V 2.0 ?

Dear Narendrabhai ,

Legend has it that Lord Krishna wanted to build a brand new city on west coast of Saurashtra and gave the job to Vishwa Karma

There was just one condition : That new city must be constructed overnight !

Vishwa Karma mobilized all his resources and got the job done. City of Dwarka was born

Of course, western world keeps reminding us : Rome was not built in a day !

On Monday, at COP26, you announced :

Ø India will achieve net Zero status by 2070

Ø By 2030, 50 % of energy to come from renewable sources

Ø To raise non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 GW 2030 ( considering that we are currently at 100 GW, it would mean adding another 400 GW by 2030 , which is almost 50 GW / year for next 8 years )

Ø Cut projected emissions by a billion tons

Ø Cut carbon intensity of India’s economy by 45 %

This target must be viewed in light of following :

Ø India’s current installed Energy Generation Capacity is :

# 60.2 % Fossil Fuel

# 1.7 % Nuclear

# 37.9 % Renewable ( 43 % Solar / 41.2 % Wind / 10.3 % Bio-Energy / 4.8 % Small Hydro )

Ø Except for year 2020 when we added 12 GW, our average addition has been 8 GW / year for last decade ( mostly solar )

Ø For achieving the revised target, we will have to mostly rely on Solar. Hydro Power has to be ruled out since it takes many years to construct. Of course, wind power can contribute but, as per one private study, wind velocities have declined by as much as 40 % over the past decade in most promising locations

Question :

Ø Are Shri Modi’s announcement like “ building castles in the air “ ?

Answer :

Ø As someone said : “ It is alright to build castles in the Air, as long as you know how to put foundations underneath, later on “

Dear Narendrabhai,

While wishing you a Very happy Diwali, here are those Foundations – and the “ ball is in your court “ :

[ A ]

FINANCE FONDATION

Government expects most ( if not, all ) of the funds for Solar Power to come from Private Sector

Unit selling prices of Solar Power are declining steadily, year after year. No banker wants to give loans to Companies whose sale-prices are declining. Mutual Funds / HNI / Retail investors are not enthused to buy share of such companies.

This reluctance on part of the bankers gets worse when Govt-owned DISCOMS, blatantly refuse to honor the PPA entered into with Solar Power producers and regularly demand lowering of agreed purchase prices

In this scenario, how can we motivate the Private Sector to come forward to invest $ 50 Billion ( for 50 GW ), each year , year after year, for next 8 years ?

There is ONLY ONE WAY, as suggested in my following 5 YEAR old e-mail :

Sun : Our Soul ( A New SOS ) ………………[ 02 Jan 2017 ]

Extract :

* Government declares units belonging to " Solar Power ( Panel Mfr / Power Production &

Distribution / Ancillary Mfr ) " as a " SOS " industry

* Units will need to register as such with Department of Company Affairs ( DIPP )

* Units will be exempt from paying Corporate Income Tax for 10 years , on whatever

income they earn ( only those starting operations latest by 31 March 2018 )

* No questions will be asked as to the " source " of funds invested in the shares of such

units ( a kind of Temporary Amnesty Scheme - 01 April 2017 till 31 March 2018 - to

channelize BLACK MONEY into creation of PRODUCTIVE / NON-POLUTING assets )

* Units cannot engage in any other Industrial / Commercial / Financial activities

* Units cannot declare any dividends to share-holders for 10 years

These are just broad outlines and details need to be worked out

If there is political courage to pull off such an initiative, government will NOT need to allocate ANY AMOUNT !

NO NEED TO SUBSIDIZE THESE UNITS OR THE USERS, WITH THE TAX PAYERS' MONEY !

Instead of that $ 750 million allocation ( from tax payers' money ), Black Money holders will readily pump in $ 750 BILLION into the SOLAR INDUSTRY ( enough for additional installed capacity of 750 GW - as against our current installed capacity 8.63 GW of solar , and a target of 100 GW , by 2022 ! )

Remember, how only a few months back, tiny Indonesia managed to collect $ 300 billion of its Black Money , by levying tax ( no penalty ) of just 4 % !

And with this kind of INCENTIVE WINDOW ( to convert BLACK into WHITE ) , expect

* Hundreds of SOS Units to spring up before 31 March 2018

* They will have ZERO cost as far as servicing of EQUITY is concerned ! No dividends !

* They will not need to borrow funds from banks and pay interest ( no danger of NPA ! )

* They will say : We are not in the business of " manufacturing of panels " but we are in

the business of " Delivering electric power to homes / businesses "

[ B ]

TECHNOLOGY FOUNDATION

Our target is to add 400 GW of Solar power in 8 years

That will require :

Ø Next generation Solar Panels which are 1,000 TIMES more productive than current ones

Ø Batteries that can store Solar Power for days together

Fortunately such technologies are available – and their Inventers - Owners – Manufacturers , must be persuaded ( no rule-regulation-law-convention-past practice etc, to come in the way ) to set up their manufacturing operations in India, by APRIL 2022

Here is that TECHNOLOGY FOUNDATION :