Tony Seba
stands vindicated !
In 2014, Tony Seba authored :
In this seminal work , he writes :
Page 13 / 14 :
Solar photovoltaic ( PV ) panels have a
learning curve of 22 per cent . PV
production costs have dropped 22 per cent with every doubling of of the
infrastructure
By 2020,
as the market for solar expands, solar will improve its cost basis relative to
oil by 12,000 TIMES
Page 20 / 21 :
On a clear afternoon on May 25, 2012, solar in Germany generated 22 GW , which represented a THIRD of the entire country’s power needs
The following afternoon, solar generated
fully 50 % of Germany’s power , breaking
previous day’s world record
In Germany… solar energy drove German
wholesale electricity costs DOWN by more than
40 % in 2013, compared with 2008
On November 3, 2013, WIND generated more than 100 % of the power demand in Denmark
Half way around the world, Australia has
set a few world records of its own : ONE
MILLION solar installations in about FOUR YEARS
Page 22 :
The installed capacity of solar
photovoltaic around the world has grown from 1.4 GW in the year 2000 to 141 GW
at the end of 2013 . This translates to a global Compound Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR ) of 43 %
Page 25 ;
In 1970, solar PV panels cost $ 100 per
Watt . By 1973 it fell to $ 20 per watt
By 2013,
the market price of PV panels was about 65
CENTS per Watt ( a factor of 154 since 1970 )
VINDICATION :
Hindustan Times ( 16 March 2017 ) carries a news
report titled :
“ Solar
Module prices may fall 20 % this year “
Sanjeev Aggarwal ( MD and CEO , Amplus Energy
Solutions ) says ,
“ Prices ( of solar modules ) are likely
to continue to fall and in the second half of this year, tier-1 module prices
are likely to be between 27 – 30 CENTS (
per watt peak ) “
Deepak Agrawala ( Analyst , Elara Securities ) says,
“ While prices in China have fallen 11 – 13 % , those in South East Asia and
Taiwan are down 17 – 20 % ; it is
difficult to infer that this magnitude of decline may continue “
In India , installed solar power had crossed 9 GW as
of December and is likely to DOUBLE to 18 GW in
2017
Modules make for nearly 60 % of a Solar
Power Project’s total cost and their prices fell by about 26 % in 2016 alone
While China reported solar installations of about 34
GW in 2016, it is only likely to add about 28 GW in 2017 , putting downward
pressure on prices
Module prices for tier-1 manufacturers
are currently around 31-32 CENTS per
watt peak ( Wp )
The report said :
Global demand is expected to be nearly stagnant in
2017 even as several large suppliers have announced significant expansions . We believe that 2017 is likely to end with prices in the
range of 25-26 CENTS / Wp
HOW SHOULD
INDIA CEAZE THIS OPPORTUNITY ?
Read :
16 March 2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs
With Regards,
hemen
parekh
(
M ) +91 - 98,67,55,08,08
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