Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday, 6 December 2015

JUST SPARE FIVE MINUTES


Nothing    prettier    than   PERT   !

Economic Times ( 12 Oct 2015 ) carries a report titled :

" Panel set up for Innovation in Govt Projects "

As per this report, the Prime Minister has put together a team that will decide,
-- how government projects can be executed using cutting edge technologies and practices
The empowered committee for Innovative Collaborations was set up to incorporate the very latest solutions that science and technology has to offer

My suggestions :

*    When any Ministry submits any Project Proposal for Cabinet approval , it MUST be accompanied by a PERT
     ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique ) Chart , clearly showing all the " Activities " lying along the
     CRITICAL PATH ( earlier known as the CRITICAL PATH METHOD )

     That PERT Chart must accompany a tabulation showing , for each " Activity ",
     #    Pessimistic Time
     #    Optimistic  Time , and the
     #    Most likely Time

     Since Admiral Rickover , introduced this mandatory requirement for awarding tender to build the first nuclear
    submarine, some 50 years ago , all US government departments follow this procedure for all govt contracts

*    Insist that all the government departments / contractors, responsible for execution of any of these "activities",
     update the PERT chart status online on the web site of the Project Monitoring Group
    

*   PERT charts for all the projects should be made visible to the general public
*   If there is any " slippage " in any activity lying on the CRITICAL PATH , the name of the department or
     contractor responsible , must appear in bold RED letters , against that activity

This is the only INNOVATION that we need to ensure that the projects get completed in time and within budget
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
hemen  parekh / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
05  Dec  2015

     
     
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Perils    of    Procrastination

Parkinson's Law :
Work expands to fill the time available for doing it

Peter's Principle :
In an organizational hierarchy, every employee will rise or get promoted to his or her level of incompetence

My Observation :
By postponing a decision for sufficiently long time, most trivial issues can be turned into crisis situations

Examples :

# 1
More than 27 lakh trucks which are older than 15 years , will be banned from the roads from 1st April 2016

Crisis Implication :

*  Movement of goods across India , will drop drastically overnight , with resultant dip in GDP

*  At the current rate of local production, it will take 13 years to replace these trucks ! This may necessitate imports of trucks from China - worsening our already unfavorable trade balance !

# 2
From Jan 1 2016 , in city of Delhi , private cars with odd / even ( ending ) numbers , will be allowed on the roads , on alternate days ( as being done in Beijing )

Crisis Implication :
*  With totally insufficient and antiquated public transport system , people will spend on the road , an average of 6 hours daily , to / from offices
*  Rich will have two cars with odd / even numbers ( good news for car makers ! )

# 3
Salaries of Delhi MLAs will get raised by 400 %

Crisis Implication :
MPs and MLAs ( of all the States ) , will pass resolutions , increasing their respective salaries by 800 %  !

If same decisions were taken 15 years ago , these would have read :

*  2 lakh trucks to be banned immediately - with 2 lakhs more , each subsequent year

*  As in Singapore ,
   #  drastically raise the cost of owning - and subsequently , operating a private car
   #  A private car cannot enter CENTRAL DISTRICT , unless occupied by 4 persons

   And, as done in many cities of the World ,

   #  Create dedicated lanes for Buses
   #  Remove all taxes ( one-time or recurring ) on Electric Vehicles
   #  Free use of Bicycles ( pickup and leave at destinations ) by public
   #  Many more Metro lines

*   Raise MPs / MLAs salaries every year by a percentage , half of  CPI rise %
    ( ie; 5 % rise in salary if CPI rises by 10 % in preceding year )

Just look around and make a list of those seemingly " trivial / postpone-able " issues
Then extrapolate their " Size / Urgency " , to the year 2030
Then await history to repeat itself  !
Crisis , Crisis , Everywhere / Not A Solution in Sight  ?
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hemen  parekh / (M) 0 - 98,67,55,08,08
05  Dec  2015




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