A Jigsaw Puzzle or A House
of Cards ?
==========================
May be Shri Piyush Goyalji / Shri R K
Singhji , has figured it out , whether the current power situation is a jigsaw
puzzle or a house of cards
As far as I can make out , following are the pieces of
this Power Puzzle :
Surplus of 55 million tons of coal
accumulated at pit heads
CBI court trying cases of corruption in
cases of past allocation
Sentencing of ex coal secretary Gupta (
perceived as honest )
Current auction method of coal block
allocation
Supreme Court verdict cancelling past (
unfair ) allocation of coal blocks
Captive coal mines vs Commercial Coal
Mining ( even though no takers ? )
Target to double Coal production by 2022
Power plants designed to run on only
Imported coal, becoming unviable
21000 Mw worth of Coal based power
plants closing down in May 2017
34 coal based power plants under different
stages of construction , facing bleak future ( = 40
GW )
Solar Power being offered at Rs 2.41 / kwh against coal-based power at Rs 3.19 / kwh ( ave of NTPC power )
Rs 9 lakh*crore worth of bank loans ( to new / under
construction coal based power plants ) about to turn NPA
Per capita electric power consumption in
India at a measly 1075 Kwh as against, 53,832 kwh in Iceland and 9411 in Saudi Arabia
“ Access to Electricity “ target by Dec
2018….. 45 million households
Actual achieved by now………………………………….. 0.7 million households
Power Capacity growth in past 3
years………… 8.6% annually
Power Demand
growth in past 3 years…………… 4.4% each
year
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NTPC
#
current installed capacity of 51,708 MW
#
capital expenditure for current year at Rs 28,000 Cr
#
another 20,000 MW
of projects under construction
#
just floated a tender to buy-out operational
coal-based plants
#
ave cost of NTPC power is Rs 3.19 / kwh
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR POWER
SCENARIO ( AS OF SEPT 2017 )
# ground-mounted solar has reached only 13.9 GW
# roof-top capacity has reached only 790 MW
# taking total Solar installed capacity
to 14.7 GW
# This means that ,
during the next
60 months ( Nov 2017 – Nov
2022 ) , we need
to install ( 100 GW – 14.7 GW ), 85.3 GW of Solar ( ground + roof )
# That is nearly 1.5 GW / month ( month after month after
month , for next 60
months
)
Now, 1 GW installed capacity of Solar costs approx. 1 Bill
dollar ( = Rs 6500 Cr )
That means , we must find Rs 10,000 Cr /
Month , for 1.5 GW
Every month for the next 60 months !
# Solar Power Bids, planned as follows ( DNA / 27 Nov ) :
3.6
GW already bid
3.0
GW in Dec 2017
3.0
GW in Jan 2018
5.0
GW in Feb 2018
6.0
GW in March 2018
30.0
GW in 2018-19
30.0
GW in 2019-20
Ministry of New
and Renewable Energy – MNRE - is examining a proposal submitted by the Power Grid Corporation of India , to generate Solar and Wind power in
the deserts of Rajasthan / Kutchh / Lahul
and Spiti / Ladakh
These deserts
have , between them , the potential to generate 315.7 GW of Solar plus Wind power, compared with our
present installed capacity of 331 GW
But , how to “ Store “ all that huge amount of Solar
generated electricity and use it round the clock when Sun is not shining ?
This ( storage of solar generated power
) was not possible till yesterday
But it just became possible !
Only yesterday , Elon Musk ( TESLA )
completed installation of a 100 MW /
129 MWh , Lithium-ion Battery Storage facility
in Australia , for a cost of $ 50
million
All within 100 days – ensuring no more “
black outs “ in South Australia !
To store that 316 GW ( 316,000 MW ) of solar power generated
in our deserts , we
will need 3160 Storage Batteries of the size ( 100 MW
) installed in Australia
That would cost , $ 158 Billion ( Rs 11.15 lakh*crore )
In all , we need to raise :
For 316 GW solar
power projects in our deserts…………$ 316 Billion
For 3160 Mega
Storage Batteries………………………………..$ 158 Billion
A Total of …………………………………………………………………………… $
474 Billion
Where / how can we raise such funds ?
A small country like Indonesia
managed to raise nearly $ 330 Billion of
stashed away Black Money ( out of an estimated $ 851 Billion ) within 6
months under a tax amnesty scheme ( just pay 2
% tax / no penalty ! ) – all for
investing in infrastructure
To know how we can do better, look up :
Indonesia Shows the Way ( 23
Dec 2016 )
Can you imagine :
what it could do
to our economy if power
was available for Rs 1 / Kwh ?
how many
premature deaths ( due to air pollution ) can be avoided if we shut down ALL
coal-based power plants ? ( Ans : 600,000
each year )
6
million Electric vehicles that
the Government wants to put on our roads by 2020 , were re-charging their
Li-ion batteries , using GREEN solar power ?
=======================================================
27 Nov 2017
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
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