Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday, 27 November 2017

THIS IS THE BIG-BANG REFORM


A Jigsaw Puzzle  or  A  House of  Cards  ?

==========================

May be Shri Piyush Goyalji / Shri R K Singhji , has figured it out , whether the current power situation is a jigsaw puzzle or a house of cards

As far as I can make out , following are the pieces of this Power Puzzle :


Surplus of 55 million tons of coal accumulated at pit heads

CBI court trying cases of corruption in cases of past allocation

Sentencing of ex coal secretary Gupta ( perceived as honest )

Current auction method of coal block allocation

Supreme Court verdict cancelling past ( unfair ) allocation of coal blocks

Captive coal mines vs Commercial Coal Mining ( even though no takers ? )

Target to double Coal production by 2022

Power plants designed to run on only Imported coal, becoming unviable

21000 Mw worth of Coal based power plants closing down in May 2017

34 coal based power plants under different stages of construction , facing bleak future ( = 40 GW )

Solar Power being offered at Rs 2.41 / kwh against coal-based power at Rs 3.19 / kwh ( ave of NTPC power )

Rs 9 lakh*crore worth of bank loans ( to new / under construction coal based power plants ) about to turn NPA

Per capita electric power consumption in India at a measly 1075 Kwh as against, 53,832 kwh in Iceland and 9411 in Saudi Arabia

“ Access to Electricity “ target by Dec 2018….. 45 million households

Actual achieved by now………………………………….. 0.7 million households

Power Capacity growth in past 3 years…………   8.6% annually

Power Demand growth in past 3 years…………… 4.4% each year

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NTPC
#    current installed capacity of 51,708 MW

#    capital expenditure for current year at Rs 28,000 Cr

#    another 20,000 MW of projects under construction

#    just floated a tender to buy-out operational coal-based plants

#    ave cost of NTPC power is Rs 3.19 / kwh


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR  POWER  SCENARIO  ( AS  OF  SEPT  2017  )


  #  ground-mounted solar has reached only 13.9 GW


   #   roof-top capacity has reached only 790 MW


   #    taking total Solar installed capacity to 14.7 GW


   #   This means that , during the next 60 months ( Nov 2017 – Nov 2022 ) , we need
         to install ( 100 GW – 14.7 GW ),  85.3 GW of Solar ( ground + roof )


      #    That is nearly 1.5 GW / month ( month after month after month , for next 60
            months )

           Now, 1 GW installed capacity of Solar costs approx. 1 Bill dollar ( = Rs 6500 Cr )


          That means , we must find Rs 10,000 Cr / Month , for 1.5 GW


          Every month for the next 60 months !


    #   Solar Power Bids, planned as follows ( DNA / 27 Nov ) :


   3.6 GW already bid

   3.0 GW in Dec 2017

   3.0 GW in Jan 2018

   5.0 GW in Feb 2018

   6.0 GW in March 2018

   30.0 GW in 2018-19

  30.0 GW in 2019-20



Ministry of New and Renewable Energy – MNRE - is examining a proposal submitted by the Power Grid Corporation of India , to generate Solar and Wind power in the deserts of Rajasthan / Kutchh / Lahul and Spiti / Ladakh


These deserts have , between them , the potential to generate 315.7 GW of Solar plus Wind power, compared with our present installed capacity of 331 GW


But , how to “ Store “ all that huge amount of Solar generated electricity and use it round the clock when Sun is not shining ?


This ( storage of solar generated power ) was not possible till yesterday


But it just became possible !


Only yesterday , Elon Musk ( TESLA ) completed installation of a 100 MW / 129 MWh , Lithium-ion Battery Storage facility in Australia , for a cost of $ 50 million


All within 100 days – ensuring no more “ black outs “ in South Australia  !

     To store that 316 GW ( 316,000 MW ) of solar power generated in our deserts , we
    will need 3160 Storage Batteries of the size ( 100 MW ) installed in Australia


    That would cost , $ 158 Billion ( Rs 11.15 lakh*crore )


    In all , we need to raise :


For 316 GW solar power projects in our deserts…………$  316  Billion

For 3160 Mega Storage Batteries………………………………..$  158  Billion

         A Total of …………………………………………………………………………… $  474  Billion


    Where / how can we raise such funds ?


    A small country like Indonesia managed to raise nearly $ 330 Billion of stashed away Black Money ( out of an estimated $ 851 Billion )  within 6 months under a tax amnesty scheme ( just pay 2 % tax / no penalty ! ) – all for investing in infrastructure





   

   To know how we can do better, look up :


    Sun :  Our  Soul  (  07  Jan  2017  )



Indonesia Shows the Way  (  23  Dec  2016  )



Can you imagine :

what it could do to our economy if power was available for Rs 1 / Kwh ?

how many premature deaths ( due to air pollution ) can be avoided if we shut down ALL coal-based power plants ? ( Ans :  600,000 each year )

6 million Electric vehicles that the Government wants to put on our roads by 2020 , were re-charging their Li-ion batteries , using GREEN solar power ?

=======================================================

27  Nov  2017

   


No comments:

Post a Comment