Horoscope
of a Nation ?
--------------------------
DNA
( 25 April 2017 ) carries a news report as follows :
“
Niti aayog envisions houses , vehicles , ACs for all by year 2032 “
The
government think tank Niti Aayog has envisaged a new India in which all
citizens in 15 years will have houses with toilets , two wheelers or cars ,
power , air conditioners and digital connectivity
“ The
India 2031-32 : Vision , Strategy and Action Agenda “ , also visualises a fully literate
society with universal access to health care
It
also called for having a much larger and modern network of roads , railways ,
waterways , and air connectivity and a clean India where citizens would have
access to quality air and water
It
envisioned that per capita income would increase three-fold to Rs 3.14 lakh in
2031-32 from Rs 1.06 lakh in 2015-16
“
We must transform India into a prosperous , healthy , secure , corruption-free
, energy abundant , environmentally clean and globally influential nation “ ,
the presentation said
Readers
are requested to interpret this VISION DOCUMENT in terms of my following
note
, dated 04 May 2008 :
-----------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------
Horoscope & Other ( Equally Fictitious
) Stories
--------------------------
Most
People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past /
present ” has been quite good.
So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.
So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.
And
that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.
This
human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of
astrologers & futurologists thrives.
And
what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?
They
rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”
They
know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with
greater regularity than some others.
Some
events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.
No
one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of
occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.
But
every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if
probability is low).
E.g.
For
certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of 0.99, such as
· A dacoit / murder in the city
· A bus-accident
· A boat capsizing etc.
Whereas,
probability of a Political leader getting assassinated TOMORROW
will be a very low, 0.001 ,
But
probability of one such assassination taking place within next 10 years, goes up
to 0.9.
So,
there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;
· Type / Nature of event
· Time period within which it will
happen
· To whom it will happen / affect.
Now
examine :
Ø TYPE
/ NATURE OF EVENT :-
Practically,
these can run into thousands.
Ø TIME-PERIOD
/ PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-
An
event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or
a century.
Ø PERSON
AFFECTED :-
There are 6 billion humans on this
earth.
Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have
literally TRILLIONS &
TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability
” attached to each !
This
is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !
· Something or Else ( event )
is
likely to happen to,
· Someone or Else ( Person )
At
· Sometime or other ( Time )
As
long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL , in respect of
Ø An Individual
Ø A given time-period
Ø Precise nature ( of what will
happen ),
You
are safe !
You
just cannot be faulted !
BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO
HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !
Now
if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually
happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence
/ faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !
They
start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict future (
did it not come true for them ? )
Then
these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month ) about your magical powers.
And
the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction ” did not come true,
Ø Either forget that they ever read the
prediction OR
Ø Believe that it was not “ meant” for
them , OR
Ø Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction
(about them ) will come true ( the flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in
their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).
But
these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as
predicted !
They
don’t want to look silly !
They
don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific,
irrational predictions !
So only the good-word spreads.
Only the “ positive ” stories spread.
Only the “ positive ” stories spread.
So each such story, brings in more &
more person to look-up morning newspaper to see, what future holds for
them.
Forgotten
within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did happen by
the end of the day.
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27
April 2017
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
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