Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Tuesday, 19 December 2017

BABY STEPS WON'T SUFFICE !


India Solar Policy : Too Little :  Too  Late ?

----------------------------------------------


The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy ( MNRE ) , has released a concept note of a proposal to build India’s manufacturing supply chain covering poly-silicon, wafers / ingots , cells and modules, to accelerate the growth of the solar photo-voltaic sector


{ source :  Indian solar cells and modules manufacture 'obsolete', says MNRE 

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/macro-economy/indian-solar-cells-and-modules-manufacture-obsolete-says-mnre/article9995814.ece  }



Broadly speaking , this note considers :

·         Direct Financial Support ( Rs11,000 Crore )

·         Technology Up-gradation Fund ( Capital Subsidy for technology up-gradation projects )

·         Domestic Content Requirement – DCR – Scheme ( adjudged violative by WTO )

·         For manufacture of Cells and Modules ,
#   Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme  ( available to all electronic goods manufacturers ( there have been few takers )



This is a case of :

 
·         Too  Little  /  Too  Late
 
·         Tinkering

·         Incremental

This way , we will never manage to add 1.5 GW of Solar Power Installations per month ( 85 GW in next 60 months , in order to achieve 100 GW by 2022 )

To achieve this tall target , we need some OUT OF  THE  BOX thinking , as explained in :
=======================================================
=======================================================

Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana


=======================================================

Tony Seba stands vindicated !


=======================================================

How Cheap can it get ?


=======================================================

Dear  Shri  R  K  Singhji :

I urge you to consider these suggestions before releasing the policy

19  Dec  2017














Warm Regards,

Hemen Parekh
+91 98675 50808

From: Hemen Parekh [mailto:hcp@recruitguru.com]
Sent: 14 December 2017 11:23
To: Cabinet Ministers
Cc: ssbhalla@gmail.com; bibek.debroy@gov.in; ashima@igidr.ac.in; rr1@nipfp.org.in; ratanp.watal@gov.in; ceo-niti@nic.in; cm@maharashtra.gov.in; cmbihar@nic.in; Indian Think Tanks; hcp@recruitguru.com
Subject: ONLY WAY OUT ?

Solar  Power  :  GigaWatt  or  GigaFlop  ?

=========================


Government has set a target of achieving installed capacity of 100 GW of solar power by 2022


Of this , by end June 2017 , we have reached 15 GW , leaving a balance of 85 GW to be achieved by 2022


In simple terms , this would amount to installing 85 GW in next 60 months ( 1.4 GW / month )


During second quarter ( June / July / Aug ) , only 2,505 MW of capacity was auctioned ( against tenders for 3,408 MW )


During third quarter ( Sept / Oct / Nov ) , only 1,232 MW of capacity was auctioned ( against tenders for 1,456 MW )


{  Source  :  Mercom Capital /  Times of India /  14  Dec  }



So , in past 6 months , we auctioned 3,737 MW ( 3.7 GW ) of solar power capacity ( against tenders for 4,864 MW - no idea how much got “ installed / commissioned  !  )


Whereas , to reach that 85 GW in 60 months , we should have “ installed “ , 8.5 GW in 6 months !


This trend is ominous !



But I believe , worst is in store !



Installing 1.5 GW per month requires a capital of $ 1.5 Billion ( Rs 10,000 Crore ) per month


Private sector just does not have,  either that kind of funds , or that kind of “ Risk Appetite


And with all the accumulated NPAs , banks are unlikely to fund ANY business venture , where its “ Selling Prices “ are dropping at 19 % per year  !


And where , State Discoms are renegading on already signed Power Purchase Agreements , and demanding renegotiation on lower prices !




To know , what is the ONLY WAY OUT , read :







I hope it is not too late to copy the Indonesian Experiment !





14  Dec  2017




No comments:

Post a Comment