Blog

What   Are  the  Chances  ?

Over the past few weeks , we saw many surveys re: which political party will win how many Lok Sabha seats

These included , Times Now-ORG / CNN-IBN-CSDS / Headlines Today - Cicero / ABP News-Nielsen / News 24 - Today's Chanakya / Cvoter - India TV etc

Although , " Today's Chanakya " came closest to predicting the number of seats that NDA might win , others too were fairly accurate

Using statistical techniques , they computed the Chance ( Probability ) for each party , based on asking a few thousands voters ( sample ) , their preferences

Now is the time to survey the voters , once again , as to what do they believe , when it comes to BJP fulfilling its poll promises

For each item ( of BJP's poll manifesto ) , what is the perceived chance ( probability ) that the BJP Government will fulfill / deliver on its promises ? Will it be 10 % - 50 % - 100 %  ?

The outcome will determine BJP's credibility among voters , vis-a-vis , its poll promises

It may be even an eye-opener for BJP  !

If conducted and results published by end June 2014 , such a survey might even become a " Self Fulfilling Prophesy "  !

If it turns out less-than-flattering , BJP will work twice as hard to prove the pollsters wrong  !

Here are the " Chances " which I attach to fulfillment of each of BJP's following poll promises , by the end of 3rd year :

*  Ensure minimization of Black Money and setting up of a Task

    Force  ......... ( 50 % )

*  Special Courts to stop hoarding and black-marketing. ( 100 %)

*  Set-up a Price-Stabilization Fund.......( 100 % )

*  Develop labour-intensive Manufacturing ...  (  10 %  )

*  Empowering youth for Self-Employment...  ( 25 % )

*  Transforming Employment Exchanges to Career Centers(10% )

*  Eliminating corruption thru E-Governance... ( 10 % )

*  Rationalization / Simplification of Tax-regime.. ( 20 % )

*  Insulate intelligence agencies from political intervention and

    interference..... ( 10 % )

*  Strengthening physical infrastructure with expediting work on

    freight and Industrial Corridors..... ( 15 % )

*  Setting up Gas-Grids and National Optical Fiber Network up to

    the village level.......  (  30 %  )

*  Quadrilateral project for Bullet Trains..... (  5  %  )

*  Establishment of National E - Library.....  (  40  %  )

*  Implementation of National Education Policy .. ( 50 % )

*  Evolving further the PPP model to PPPP model .. ( 50 % )

*  Building 100 Mega-Cities................  (  0  %  )

Did I miss out any  ?

Parallel with whatever the Pollsters may - or may not - do , it would be worthwhile for BJP Tech-Team , to come out with a mobile App ( to be named , " RUN - Rate Us Now " ? ), to find out what voters feel , on a 5 star scale

Or , an App that would let the voters prioritize among various promises

*  hemen  parekh  (  19 May 2014 / Mumbai  )