PAPER TIGER IS CHALLENGING THE ELEPHANT

China leads the World :  as usual

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Here is how :

Lithium-Ion Battery Rampup

This is a report by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence , which predicts that , by 2030 :

·      All over the world, there will be 10 mega-factories producing Li-ion batteries , with a combined capacity of 299 GWh

·      Of these , 7 will be in China, with a combined capacity of 207 GWh ( 70 % of total )

·      Three other will be , one each in USA ( 50 GWh ) / Poland ( 22 GWh ) / Korea ( 20 GWh )

Why none in India despite the following report by our National Energy Storage Mission report of Aug 2018 ?

http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/India-Energy-Storage-Mission.pdf  ,

which says :

·      India would require a minimum of 20 GIGA FACTORIES by 2030 ( for 800 Gwh capacity ) [  40 Gwh per factory  ]

If we assume that we manage to put up the very first such Giga factory in 2020 , then , this would require at least TWO giga-factories to be commissioned EVERY YEAR for the next 10 YEARS ( 2020 till 2030 )

To know why this is NOT likely to happen , read :

India : Energy Storage Mission  [  04  Dec  2017  ]

But then, how do the Chinese manage what seems like a “ losing proposition “ ?

Here is how :

“ Even before the MIC2025 ( Make In China 2025 ) plan came along however, the industry had been given a boost by government financial backing in the form of ,

·      easier access to funding

·      loosened oversight on overseas acquisitions

·      generous allocation of land for manufacturing

·      subsidies for buyers and free driving licences.”

[ Source : https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2169698/made-china-2025-worlds-biggest-auto-market-wants-be-most  ]

This helped sales of EVs in China reached 770,000 units last year – more than half of all new-energy vehicles sold globally.

As against this , in FY 18 , India sold 1200 e-cars ( 40 % drop from 2017 ) !

Chinese government , recently reduced subsidy for e-car to Rs 6.5 Lakh ( from earlier figure of Rs 10.6 lakh

As against this , India government offers a subsidy of Rs 1.3 lakh  !

Does our Auto Manufacturers have a “ Cost Advantage “ over the Chinese Manufacturers , when it comes to :

·         Machineries

·         Materials

·         Manpower

·         Energy

·         Compliance

·         IT / Communications

·         Transport / Logistics

·         Training / skilling

·         Systems / Procedures

·         Technology Acquisition

     To figure this out , refer to :

Costing Plays a Key Role  

 

23  Oct  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs