A Black Swan

Dear Samrat

Will appreciate your forwarding my following blog to AAP team

regards

hemen

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A   Black   Swan   ?

Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event  ?

Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan "  ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :

>  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

>  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "

>  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct 

     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

     explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,

>   Rarity

>   Extreme Impact

>   Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

>   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan

Example of Black Swan  ?

>  Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul

    Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him  !

Here is why  :

>   Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for

     past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any

    heavy-weight candidate from Amethi  (  RARITY  )

>   A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds

     of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in

     their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose

    their deposits ! ( EXTREME  IMPACT  )

>   What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE  ?

     Simple

     *  People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years .

        ( viz : Dynasty Rule )

     *  People want a change

     *  People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption

     *  People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor

     *  People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours

         of assuming power in Delhi

     *  BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black

         Swan  " !

No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014

( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the

occurrence of this Black Swan  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  03  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai )