FW: At the Cross-Roads

Dear Pulkit  /  Shashi  /  Koshika,

To how many members of AAP's PAC , can you circulate my following message in the next 30 minutes ?

Many thanks in advance

regards

hemen

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How   long   ?

By afternoon today , it will no more be a question ,

"  Will AAP form a government in Delhi  ? "

Over the past 10 days , people of Delhi have decided that

Question will be ,

"  How long will that government last  ?  "

My guess :

It will last until after the 2014 national elections

Neither Congress , nor BJP want to run the risk of a re-poll in Delhi

They know that they will get wiped out in case of a re-poll

But one thing is certain

Despite its desire to keep BJP out of power in Delhi by propping up AAP , Congress will withdraw its " outside support ' , if pushed to the wall by AAP

That would depend on what are AAP's priorities , viz:

>  Deliver on its promises of " pro-poor " reforms ( water / power / prices )

OR

>  Launch a barrage of " anti - congress " / " anti-corruption " investigations

Any attempt to embarrass / humiliate Congress , at this stage, will backfire  !

If that happens , Congress will not hesitate for a re-poll ,- come what may  !

The questions that AAP leaders must debate this morning , are :

>  Can we fulfill our promises to people without getting uninterrupted 6

    months to perform  ?

   

>  What is more important in the short - term  from viewpoint of Delhi-ites ?

>  If we do not get next 6 months to carry out our reforms , can we make

    a meaningful impact on 760 million voters in 2014  ?

>  If Congress withdraws its outside support after 2 months , will BJP come

    forward to support or will they gloat , " We had told you AAP can't last "

>   What will we achieve by focusing on past corrupt deeds of Congress ?

     People already know about these . How will exposing these deeds help

     people right now ?

>   Should not our TOP-MOST priority be to offer good governance  ?

>   Can we not leave this matter ( of past corrupt deeds ) to Jan-lokpal

     and the judiciary  ?

Dear Arvind ,

If  you have learned your " Game Theory " ( John Nash ) well at IIT , you are expected to be a " Rational Player " , whose sole focus is ,

"  Forget about the dis-advantages of the opponent ( in this case , discomfiture of Congress ) . That is NOT the winning strategy

What move will secure AAP's long-term advantage ?  "

I am not asking you to compromise with your principles

Just get your priority right  !

*   hemen   parekh  (  23  Dec  2013  /  Mumbai  )

From: Hemen Parekh
Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2013 9:42 AM
To: 'delhielections@aamaadmiparty.org'
Subject: At the Cross-Roads

Dear Pulkit / Shashi  / Koshika,

I will thank you to pass on my following blog to Arvind

regards

hemen

Mumbai

(M) 0-98,67,55,08,08

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No   Option   ?

Arvind Kejriwal is left with no option but to form the government in Delhi

By agreeing with almost all the conditions stipulated by him , Congress has left him with no excuse , not to form a government

Although it is difficult to say what motivated Congress to accept AAP's conditions , here is my guess :

>   As in the case of " Tainted MPs " ordinance , Rahul Gandhi forced the

     issue , because he too , genuinely believes in decentralization of

     democracy

>   By hook or by crook , Congress wants to keep BJP out of power in Delhi

>   Congress may have realized that in case of a re-poll , it would end up

     losing even its current 8 seats . A terrible omen for 2014 elections !

>   In any case , on most of the issues raised by AAP , there is a lot of

     commonality in the poll manifestos of Congress and AAP

     Not accepting AAP's conditions would be tantamount to saying ,

     "  But our poll promises hold good only if we are voted to power  "  !

>   In view of the 2014 national elections , Congress wants AAP to remain

     pre-occupied with governance of Delhi , effectively putting a brake on its

     national ambitions

>   By agreeing , Congress wants to divert the attention of the people from

     its murky past and let them focus on the re-invented image of ,

     "  Congress - the Reformer  "

>   If , with its backing , AAP succeeds in delivering good governance in the

     next 6 months , Congress can share the credit of being , " Pro Poor

    People "

    That would enable Congress to tell 760 million voters ,

    "  We can deliver good governance nation-wide, if you vote for us "

At this point of time , trying to figure out the motives of Congress is irrelevant

It is entirely possible that , on the condition of strong Lok Ayukt in Delhi , counter-condition of Congress , could be a trap for AAP to walk in  !

But knowing that fully , AAP must take the risk  !

When he went to attend the second Round Table Conference in London ( 1931 ) , Mahatma Gandhi realized that it was going to be a failure

He was acutely aware of the trap laid by the British

But he saw that the hopes of millions of Indians fighting his non-violent movement , were riding on his trip

So he went

My uncle , poet  Meghani  sent following poem to Mahatma :

"  Even as you know the futility of your mission ,

   O  Bapu ,

   Drink this last cup of hemlock ( poison ),

   You ,

   Who have drank oceans of poison

   Served by the British ,

   Do not throw away this spoonful  "

Poor people of Delhi are saying something similar to Arvind , today  !

*   hemen  parekh  (  17  Nov  2013   /   Mumbai  )